Frequent cyclones need full preparation to cope

CLIMATE change produces many ill effects for countries within geographical zones where Zimbabwe lies, and one increasing danger is the likelihood of more cyclones and major tropical storms, with the SADC average rising from nine to 13.

These, admittedly are averages calculated on probabilities by the Southern Africa Regional Climate Forum, and it might be more and might be less than 13, but an increase in the cyclone and cyclone-related storm by 44 percent is still a large surge and we need to be prepared as a region and Zimbabwe, as a nation.

Much of the problem arises from global warming. The warmer the seas the more likelihood there is of cyclones in the Indian Ocean, hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and typhoons in the Pacific Ocean.

There are just different names for the same tropical cyclones and the only difference is in the name, not in the storm.

It is the warmth of the ocean that provides the energy to create and maintain the tropical cyclone and even small amounts of extra energy can make a large difference.

The El Nino phenomenon, which sees a large movement of warm water flowing west to east across the central Pacific tends to expand the ocean areas with warmer water and that has global consequences.

While the Southern African meteorological experts see more frequent cyclones they have not yet commented on how severe they might be. But considering that the frequency is rising it seems likely that even with the same proportion of the most severe storm, they will be more bad cyclones.

The effect on each country varies, but there is a tendency for the two large topical and coastal nations of Mozambique and Madagascar to bear the brunt and they will both probably have to cope with the majority of the expected 13 or so storms.

Some never swing inland, but quite a few do and Zimbabwe will probably see about two. Again these are just average expectations, so it might be one, it might be three.

The point is we need to be ready to cope and that does not just mean the Government, but all of us as well. The Department of Civil Protection, largely a planning and co-ordinating unit that can draw on many other Government and local government staff and facilities when there is need, has been warning of the need for preparation as well as preparing itself and the many others who it will call upon when a cyclone of major storm rides in.

It sees the most likely dangers in a belt along the eastern border mountains and then across northeast Zimbabwe as far as Gokwe North, but has made it clear that serious thunderstorms and other severe weather can occur anywhere so no one can sit back and relax.

Already, people have been killed an injured and some property damaged, some severely, in the first belts of thunderstorms drifting across Zimbabwe with lightning still the biggest killer.

The gradual improvement in rural housing, with far more substantial brick housing as smallholder farmers earn more money, has slashed the lightning death rate, but it is still got some way to go until all families have somewhere fairly safe to shelter.

It is also clear from the early storms and what we have seen in previous seasons that school authorities and others need to check their roofs, and make sure roof sheets are fixed securely.

It should not be common for roof sheets to be ripped off in anything but the very worst of cyclone weather and that simply requires someone to climb on and check.

People also need to make sure that storm water drains are working and are reasonably clear, in both rural and urban areas, to avoid or at least minimised flooding, and that families, and especially children are not going to take any silly risks in trying to cross streams, let alone rivers, in flood.

Since Cyclone Idai in March 2019, Zimbabwe has prepared responses to cope with the very worst cyclones. We might not have another one of that severity for some years, we might have one this season, but the point is we have to be ready.

While the emergency response after the worst cyclone for many decades hit Zimbabwe was good, it was immediately obvious that more needed to be done to prepare people before a storm hit since the storm could be a lot worse than anything in living memory.

So we upgraded everything to make sure that if another Cyclone Idai, or even something worse, hit we could warn everyone and ensure that they were far safer.

Since then every time a cyclone, or even a severe tropical storm, moves towards Zimbabwe the department of civil protection moves into emergency mode.

We now preposition emergency supplies near where the storm is likely to hit, so damaged bridges or broken roads do not delay emergency relief.

A wide swathe of Government staff are placed on alert in the likely districts, and most of all we now have a system in place where emergency warnings can go right down to village head level very quickly, with people at the village level having a very good idea of what to do in advance.

This is one reason that although we have not had a second Idai we have had bad storms, but with people knowing how to avoid death and injury.

Last season, the worst storm was Cyclone Freddy, the longest lived Indian Ocean cyclone that eventually caused severe flooding in Malawi and parts of Mozambique although it brushed part Zimbabwe twice.

One major result of that was the immediate emergency aid Zimbabwe despatched, while the international and other relief works were set in motion.

At the same time it was recognised that we needed more regional co-ordination of dealing with severe weather and of coping with the need for relief, and hopefully we can do more next time, and there will be a next time.

We also need to learn from each other. Mozambique, for example, with the worst hit rate by cyclones has built up community warning systems to high levels that the rest of us have been emulating and has learned to live with more frequent cyclones than the rest of us by making sure people are prepared and building and maintenance codes are good.

Zimbabwe has built up rapid reaction teams as a result of its experience and there must be many other examples across the region.

Cyclones are a serious problem, but we need to know how to cope and how to minimise damage and injury so that move from disasters to serious nuisances, but no worse.