Sub-Saharan Africa GDP to contract 3.1pc this year - poll

JOHANNESBURG - Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy will contract this year after shutdowns disrupted activity and as daily cases of coronavirus are still rising in the region but a recovery is expected next year, a Reuters poll found.

Following months of lockdowns which have muted economic activity a Reuters poll taken in the past week suggested the region will contract 3.1 percent this year but bounce back to around 3.5 percent growth in 2021. Some countries have begun relaxing restrictions but virus cases are still increasing, unlike in many developed countries that have started to show signs of recovery, so the uncertainty meant the range of forecasts for next year was wide - between flatlining and 4.8 percent growth.

South Africa has reported the most cases in Africa, partly reflecting more widespread testing, and it is harder to gauge the full extent of outbreaks elsewhere although there are no signs numbers are falling.

“Growth downgrades dominate in a region where external and fiscal buffers were already substantially eroded. The impact of Covid-19 will reduce growth even further,” Standard Chartered wrote in a note.

Nigeria, Africa’s biggest economy, was expected to contract 3.7 percent this year but bounce back to 2.0 percent growth next year.

Continental peer South Africa was expected to grow 3.5 percent next year following an 8.0 percent contraction this year, a Reuters poll showed last week.