Singapore Feb core inflation accelerates to seven-month high amid Lunar New Year

Singapore's February core inflation accelerated to its fastest pace in seven months, official data showed yesterday, as seasonal effects from the Lunar New Year drove services and food prices higher.

The core inflation rate, which excludes private road transport and accommodation costs, came in 3.6 per cent in February from a year earlier, faster than the 3.4 per cent forecast by a Reuters poll of economists and the 3.1 per cent seen in January.

The February figure was the highest since the 3.8 per cent in July 2023 according to LSEG data.

Headline consumer prices in February were up 3.4 per cent from the same month last year, stronger than the 3.3 per cent forecast in the poll and the 2.9 per cent rise in January.

"This was driven by higher services and food inflation, partly reflecting seasonal effects associated with the Chinese New Year," the Trade Ministry and Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said in a statement yesterday.

Core inflation is expected to resume a gradual moderating trend over the rest of the year, it said, as import cost pressures continue to decline and tightness in the domestic labour market eases.

They projected both headline and core inflation to average 2.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent for 2024, unchanged from previous official forecast.

"Going forward, we expect inflation to remain elevated in March before easing to 2 per cent by the end of the year," Goldman strategists Rina Jio and Jonathan Sequeira wrote in a research note on Monday.

"We continue to expect the MAS to keep its monetary policy parameters unchanged this year," they added.

While inflation has slowed from its peak of 5.5 per cent in January last year, it remains sticky amid slowing economic growth and an increase in goods and service tax by one-percentage point this year.

The economy expanded 1.1 per cent last year, moderating from the 3.8 per cent in 2022.

Singapore expects higher economic growth at 1 per cent to 3 per cent this year but warned of a mixed economic outlook due to geopolitical risks. MAS in January left monetary policy settings unchanged in its first review of 2024.

MAS, which uses exchange rate as its primary tool, has increased the frequency of its reviews from twice a year to quarterly starting this year. It is due to revisit monetary settings in April.

"The gradually strengthening S$ trade-weighted exchange rate should also continue to temper Singapore's imported inflation in the quarters ahead," MAS and the Trade Ministry said.