Washington County Enterprise-Leader
Preparing for more people
Prairie Grove could grow by 2,400 over next 6 years
PRAIRIE GROVE — Based on the rate of construction, city officials estimate Prairie Grove’s population will grow to 9,000 by mid 2025, reach 10,000 in 2028 and by 2030 could be almost 11,000. The population presently is an estimated 8,600.
Larry Oelrich, city administrative assistant, recently provided a summary of growth and development during a presentation to Prairie Grove School Board to help it in making decisions about future capital improvement projects.
The school has building projects underway: a junior high addition, a new fieldhouse and indoor facility. The school also has purchased 20 acres on East Parks Street for a second elementary school.
“This shows you the growth coming our way,” Oelrich said at the board’s March 19 meeting.
The school is not alone in planning for future growth, Oelrich told board members. With growth, the city will need more police officers, firefighters and building expansions.
“One thing the city and school have in common with growth - the needs and expenses come way before the revenue,” he said. “Revenue seems to trail.”
Oelrich said Prairie Grove’s population has grown 800% since 1950 and increased 300% since 2000.
It’s possible residential growth could slow down because of interest rates, Oelrich said, but the planning commission and city council are still approving residential developments in the community. The most recent is a planned unit development called Copper Hill with about 500 lots that will be built out over the next seven years.
Oelrich uses permits for dwelling units to estimate the city’s population. Prairie Grove has 2.6 people per dwelling unit, which is slightly up from the past. This indicates, Oelrich said, the city is seeing more younger families, which will impact school growth.
From 2019 to 2023, the city gave out 809 residential building permits, with the most, 248, in 2022. Of these, 717 were permits for single-family houses and 90 were for multi-family units. The city didn’t issue any permits for multi-family units in 2022 or 2023 but will have some for 2024, Oelrich said.
Oelrich said the city sometimes gets a “bad reputation” when it comes to residential growth but pointed out people have the right by law to develop their property.
When plans are submitted, the planning commission and city council scrutinize those to try to make the best decision they can, “but we have to be cognizant they have the right to develop that property,” Oelrich said. Developers have their own financial decisions they have to make, he added.
Prairie Grove is seeing growth in all parts of the city but especially in the southwest and southeast sections, according to Oelrich.
Two subdivisions under construction in the southwest portion are Snyder Grove and Wagnon Springs. In the southeast part of town, new subdivisions that have been approved or are under construction are Mountain View, Selah Meadows and Copper Hill.
In the northwest part of town, Phase 1 of Hudson Heights is under construction.
West of town, one developer has approached the planning commission with a concept plat about a subdivision with 560 lots that would require the city to annex land on Stonewall Road, just west of the city limits. Oelrich said the planning commission had concerns about the density of the neighborhood and the developer has not returned yet with a revised plan.
Multi-family developments that have been approved include Coyle Townhouses on Mock Street with 22 units and Matt Taylor multi-family project on Cactus Jack Road with 52 units, though Oelrich said he’s heard this property may be back on the market.
Oelrich’s presentation also looked at sales tax revenues, property assessments and traffic count.
“We’re seeing revenue growth; it’s just not keeping up with the demand,” he said.
The city has almost doubled its sales tax revenue in the past five years, which Oelrich described as “tremendous growth.”
In 2019, Prairie Grove received $581,990 in sales tax revenues, per 1%, and in 2023, it took in $1,059,742, per 1%. For the first three months of 2024, revenues are down a bit. Prairie Grove has collected $274,171, per 1%, for Janunary-March, compared to $267,266 for the same period in 2023.
Property assessments for the city have increased 70% in the last five years, from $89 million in property assessments in 2019 to $151 million in property assessments.
Property assessments for the school district have increased 59% during the same period.
Traffic counts from Arkansas Department of Transportation show that 18,000 vehicles per day crossed the Illinois River bridge in 2022. Oelrich said he believes the count for 2023 will increase to 19,000 vehicles per day at the bridge.
The traffic count is 55%45% for vehicles staying on the bypass or traveling through town for 2022 numbers. The count shows 10,000 vehicles per day on the bypass and 8,000 cars turning at the traffic light on Highway 62 to go into town.
Commercial development is expected along Heritage Parkway but Oelrich said he could not talk about any specifics until plans are submitted. He said he could confirm McDonald’s has purchased a lot but no plans have been submitted to the planning commission.