Vermont senator’s lead in California has him in prime position, poll says

Bernie Sanders holds a commanding double-digit lead on the cusp of California’s Democratic primary, a new Suffolk University/USA TODAY statewide poll finds, giving the Vermont senator the prospect of capturing the lion’s share of the largest trove of convention delegations in the country on Super Tuesday.

Sanders was at 35% among likely Democratic primary voters, well ahead of former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg at 16%, former vice president Joe Biden at 14% and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 12%.

The survey, taken Wednesday through Saturday by landline and cell

phone, doesn’t reflect whatever bounce Biden may get from his victory in the South Carolina primary Saturday night.

Even so, the poll showed the depth of Sanders’ standing in the state. “Sanders will win California because he is winning 45% of Hispanic voters and 59% of young voters,” said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “No Democratic opponent can offset both of these statistical advantages to close his advantage.”

The poll of 500 likely Democratic primary voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

On Sunday, Biden argued his strong showing had made him the clear moderate alternative to Sanders, portraying it as effectively a two-person race.

But Biden’s hopes for a comeback face a double challenge in California: finishing ahead of Bloomberg, who also portrays himself as the strongest moderate contender, and reaching the 15% threshold needed to claim a share of convention delegates allocated by the results statewide and in its 53 congressional districts.

California has 415 pledged delegates, 271 of them allocated by district and another 144 awarded statewide. The state’s delegation comprises more than one-fifth of the 1,991 votes needed to claim the presidential nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee in July.

If his rivals fail to reach the 15% threshold statewide and in some congressional districts, Sanders’ sweep would make it much more difficult for other candidates to catch up in the rest of the primaries.

But the California survey also shows what could happen if voters consolidated behind a single moderate alternative to Sanders, who describes himself as a Democratic socialist. For instance, the combined support of Bloomberg, Biden, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar would total 42%, 7 points higher than Sanders’ current standing.

Among the lower-ranking candidates, Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, was at 7%; Minnesota Sen. Klobuchar at 5%; and liberal activist Tom Steyer and Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard at 3% each. Steyer dropped out of the race Saturday and Buttigieg dropped out Sunday after disappointing finishes in South Carolina.

California looms a test as well for Bloomberg, who will be on the ballot for the first time Tuesday. The billionaire has spent an unprecedented amount of his own fortune on TV ads nationwide, including more than $63 million in California alone, said Advertising Analytics, which tracks candidate spending.

In the Suffolk/USA TODAY poll, one in four likely Democratic primary voters reported that they had already cast their ballots, which means their vote can’t be affected by Biden’s bounce or Bloomberg’s TV ad push. Thirteen percent in that group voted for Biden, well behind Sanders (27%), Warren (22%) and Bloomberg (17%). But fewer California voters have returned their early ballots than at this point in previous contests, according to an analysis by Political Data Inc. reported by Politico. That could reflect a desire by some to see how the race was sorting out before deciding.

California traditionally has held its primary in June, often after the presidential nomination was settled. This year, the nation’s most populous state moved up to Super Tuesday on March 3, when a total of 14 states and a territory will vote. The number of delegates at stake swamps those allocated by the first four contests, in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

In the California poll, Sanders’ support was disproportionately male and liberal. A 51% majority of liberals backed the Vermont senator, compared with 17% of moderates and 12% of conservatives. Biden did best among moderates, Bloomberg among conservatives.