Tuesday could set up long duel for Clinton, Sanders
Hillary Clinton hoped Tuesday’s primaries in five states in the South and Midwest would cement her grip on the Democratic presidential nomination.
Instead, they’re likely to make clear the race will be a slog for many weeks.
Clinton holds a wide lead in Florida and North Carolina, but recent polls show a tight race in Missouri and Sanders narrowing her advantage in Illinois and Ohio. After the Vermont senator pulled off a surprise victory last week in Michigan, closing a 20point gap in polls, backers of both candidates expect more gains for Sanders on Tuesday.
“Ohio’s going to be the same,” said Rep. Tim Ryan, D- Ohio, who backs Clinton. “It’s going to be a tough race down to the wire.”
The Sanders campaign hopes a strong showing Tuesday could lead to momentum in places such as Arizona, which will hold its primary March 22, disproving the Clinton campaign’s contention that the Vermont senator is a regional candidate who appeals mainly to white liberals and working-class Northeasterners.
Even if Sanders pulls off an up- set in Ohio or in Illinois — where Clinton was born — her status as the front-runner would remain unchanged, given her lead of more than 200 pledged delegates. Delegates are awarded proportionally; she’s poised to collect the most Tuesday.
“There are plenty of Democrats and Clinton supporters who wish this nomination would have been wrapped up by now,” said Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report. “I still believe she will be the nominee. It’s just taking longer than expected.”
The close competition in states such as Illinois and Ohio demonstrates Clinton’s difficulty in selling her proposals for creating manufacturing jobs vs. Sanders’ more visceral focus on trade deals he says hollowed out the Rust Belt, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement, signed into law by Bill Clinton in 1993.
“When you look at the trade deals, NAFTA, CAFTA, Ohio has suffered massive losses,” said Jeff Rusnak, Sanders’ Ohio state director.
Clinton points out she voted against the Central American trade deal as a senator, but she once called the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership the “gold standard,” though she has since opposed it.
Michigan exit polls showed Clinton trailing among voters earning $30,000 to $50,000 a year, the demographic most affected by manufacturing job losses. An NBC News/ Wall Street
Journal/ Marist poll gives Clinton a lead in Illinois — 51% to 45% — while a CBS News survey showed Sanders with a slight edge.
Sanders was in Chicago on Friday and Saturday, and he attacked Mayor Rahm Emanuel, a longtime Clinton ally. Sanders runs ads featuring local public figures talking about corruption in Chicago politics.
“Let me be as clear as I can be,” Sanders said over the weekend. “Based on his disastrous record as mayor of the city of Chicago, I do not want Mayor Emanuel’s endorsement if I win the nomination.”
Clinton has 1,234 total delegates, more than half the number needed to clinch the nomination. Sanders has 579.
Her campaign has sent subtle signals that Sanders risks damaging the party’s chances in November if he continues to bloody her during a protracted primary battle. In smaller gatherings and during a recent Fox News forum in Detroit, Clinton spoke about how difficult it was for her to nudge her supporters toward Barack Obama in 2008.
Still, some say, there’s no reason for Sanders to stand down. Sanders, an independent, “has no real loyalty to the Democratic Party,” Gonzales said. “He’s got plenty of money to run the campaign.”