POLLS MISSED VOTERS’ VERDICT

Volatile election year may mean unreliable surveys

If Donald Trump felt cocky on the eve of Monday’s Iowa caucus, he had good reason: 13 polls showed him winning that presidential contest.

They were all wrong — as Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, trumped the pollsters, and his rival, to come out on top. On the Democratic side, the majority of recent polls gave Clinton an edge over her main rival, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Clinton eked out a very narrow win.

Anyone who predicted the outcomes deserves a “special pundit medal of honor,” Amy Walter wrote in a post-election analysis

for the non-partisan Cook Politi

cal Report.

Political experts pointed to three reasons the polls were off:

uThis is an extremely volatile political climate, driven by an angry electorate whose voting preferences are difficult to gauge.

uPollsters low-balled turnout among evangelical voters and underestimated Cruz’s get-out-thevote operation.

uThe Iowa caucuses are uniquely tough to predict, with a quirky process and lots of lastminute deciders.

“It is really difficult to predict (the outcome) in a caucus state when there are so many candidates,” said Darren W. Davis, a political science professor at the University of Notre Dame who specializes in public opinion and political behavior.

The widespread voter angst, Davis said, added to the unpredictability, making it harder to estimate how many new voters would turn out and how reliable voters would cast their ballots.

Walter said experts predicted high turnout would favor Trump, but “his polarizing nature also helped turn out people who don’t want to see him win.”

As the contest moves to New Hampshire, it’s unclear whether the Granite State polls will be any more precise than the Iowa polls. What is clear, Davis said, is that the public and the media need to be “a little less excitable and a little more discerning ” in digesting such surveys.

Indeed, Walter said, New Hampshire polls may be even more unreliable. “This is a state that is notorious for breaking late and people deciding late in the game,” she said.