Patriots (10-6) at Dolphins (8-8)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

TV: CBS

Tipico Sportsbook line: Patriots by 5 1 ⁄2

Patriots’ keys to victory: New England demolished the Jaguars 50-10 in Week 17 to clinch a postseason berth after missing the playoffs in the 2020 season. Its defense has been suffocating this season – they’ve given up the fewest points per game (16.9) in the NFL. They need to get pressure on QB Tua Tagovailoa and force him to make mistakes. With how bad Miami’s offensive line has played, that shouldn’t be too difficult.

Dolphins’ keys to victory: Miami can win by getting its pass catchers open early and giving Tagovailoa the time to make the correct read and get the ball into their hands. It will also need to stop RB Damien Harris from taking over. The Dolphins must try to force rookie QB Mac Jones to make all of the big plays.

Matchup to watch: Patriots CB J.C. Jackson vs. Dolphins WR

Jaylen Waddle. Waddle has been the Dolphins’ best weapon on offense. He’s just three receptions away from breaking the rookie record for receptions (101) set by Anquan Boldin in 2003. Waddle’s quickness and route running make him a coverage nightmare for most corners. Jackson, New England’s Pro Bowl corner, will likely be tasked with stopping him.

Who wins? The Dolphins have been eliminated from postseason contention after their Week 17 loss to the Titans. Miami won the Week 1 matchup because of a fumble by Harris at the end of the game. This time, it won’t be as fortunate. New England’s defense will do what most teams have done and hold the Dolphins’ offense to a light day. Patriots, 27-13