Rebound candidates:
Regression can be a powerful force; watch Gary Sanchez, Cody Allen and others.
Winning in fantasy baseball requires turning a significant profit on your investments. Many owners fall into the trap of recency bias and value players coming off career years higher than they should, which makes turning a profit more difficult. On the flip side, players who fell short of expectations the previous season often rebound and, in turn, provide excellent value. Regression is a powerful force.
With that in mind, let’s go around the diamond, looking at some players whose disappointing 2018 seasons have cut their draft-day cost, creating a potential buying opportunity.
Hitters
Gary Sanchez of the New York Yankees was the first catcher off the board in 2018 drafts, following a 2017 season in which he belted 33 home runs. He was a major bust, though, clearing the fence just 18 times, while his batting average fell to .186, a drop of nearly 100 points.
Sanchez suffered from some bad luck, as he had the secondlowest batting average on balls in play (BABIP) among all hitters in 2018. Injuries cut into his playing time, and then his performance didn’t help. For 2019, his batting average probably won’t bounce all the way back, but the upside that made him a second-round pick a year ago remains firmly intact, making him a potential bargain at his reduced price.
Following an impressive 2017 season, Justin Bour of the Los Angeles Angels had a down year in 2018. An increase in strikeouts led to a batting average dip of more than 60 points, and despite accumulating 72 more plate appearances, his home run total fell from 25 to 20.
Bour finds himself in a great spot this season, as Angels Stadium is as good as it gets in terms of boosting homers for left-handed batters. There are only two lineup spots for Bour, Shohei Ohtani and Albert Pujols, but neither of his competitors is a great bet to be both healthy and productive, so the playing time window should be open. Don’t count on a full batting average rebound with him either, but a .260 mark with 2530 homers appears well within reach.
Jonathan Schoop signed with the Minnesota Twins following a disappointing 2018, when he hit just .233 with 21 home runs. An April oblique strain and an unlucky BABIP both likely played roles in his abysmal first-half performance, during which he hit just .197 with eight homers.
Schoop seemed to have turned a corner in July, when he hit .360 with nine home runs, but then faded and lost playing time during his stint with the Milwaukee Brewers. There’s little doubt he should provide strong power numbers, and while it’s unlikely he gets all the way back to his 2017 level of production, a repeat of his 2016 season (.267 average, 25 HR, 82 RBI) is a reasonable baseline. Those numbers would yield a nice profit at his current cost.
Chris Taylor of the Los Angeles Dodgers was a hot commodity last spring, following a breakout 2017 season in which he hit .288 with 21 home runs and 17 stolen bases. His 2018 season was a step back, as onethird of his at-bats ended in strikeouts, resulting in a .254 batting average, and he failed to reach double-digit steals.
Taylor’s strikeout woes, which worsened in the second half, make it difficult to bank on a substantial batting average rebound, but he still has a lot to offer. His versatility should help him stay in the lineup most days and qualify at multiple positions. Plus, the power/speed combo is legit, so a 20-plus homer season with mid-teen stolen bases is very much in play.
Josh Donaldson of the Atlanta Braves burned many fantasy owners in 2018, when he was plagued by shoulder soreness and recurring calf issues. He was limited to 219 plate appearances and posted an uncharacteristically low .756 OPS with the Toronto Blue Jays. However, he did look like himself in Cleveland in September, when he put up a .920 OPS across 60 plate appearances.
Donaldson, who has now missed time due to calf injuries for two straight years, clearly carries some risk heading into 2019. But he’s still an offensive force when healthy and will find himself in a prime spot in a loaded Atlanta lineup. Donaldson could still be a top-20 bat if he can stay in one piece, and he comes at a significant discount in 2019 drafts.
Steven Souza had a rough first season with the Arizona Diamondbacks. After compiling 30 home runs and 16 steals for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2017, he was limited to 241 at-bats due to multiple pectoral strains and amassed just six homers and five steals. His batting average dipped from .239 to .220.
Souza’s track record shows that he’s a risk in terms of both health and batting average, and his 2017 season is sure to go down as a career year. Even so, he offers an exciting blend of power and speed late in drafts. If he can stay healthy, look for him to get back to 20-plus homers and double-digit steals, and you won’t have to pay much to reap the benefits.
Pitchers
Cody Allen of the Los Angeles Angels looked like one of the safest closers heading into 2018 after averaging 32 saves a season the previous three years and recording a sub-3.00 ERA in five straight. But while he did save 27 games, his skills took a turn for the worse. His velocity and strikeouts were down slightly, his fly-ball percentage was up, and he lost command of the strike zone, walking 5.5 batters per nine innings in the second half.
Allen signed a one-year deal with the Angels in January and seems to have a firm grasp on the closer role. In a landscape with many unsettled bullpen situations, and some teams using multiple pitchers to close out games, grabbing a guy with a full-time role, especially in the double-digit rounds, is highly valuable. Allen still has the ability to miss bats, so if he can figure out a way to tame the wildness, he could certainly stick as closer and yield a nice return on investment.
Jeff Samardzija of the San Francisco Giants had a season to forget in 2018, when he recorded a hideous 6.25 ERA and 1.2 K/BB (strikeout-to-walk ratio) in 10 starts, a far cry from his 4.03 and 3.0 career marks in the categories. This ended a run of five consecutive seasons with 200 or more innings pitched, as pectoral and shoulder woes limited his workload, and surely affected his skills, including a 2 mph velocity dip.
For what it’s worth, Samardzija has looked good this spring, as he’s regained the zip on his fastball on his way to five scoreless innings through March 10. He probably deserves a healthrelated pass for 2018, and though we can’t bank on a return to 200 innings, a nice bounce-back season could be in store for Samardzija, who is basically free in drafts right now.