Marquee matchup
Warriors-lakers: Predicting who wins and why
Three years since their last postseason meeting, Stephen Curry and Lebron James meet again. A taxing regular season concluded Sunday with a busy schedule in which James looked spry in his return to the Los Angeles Lakers and Curry unloaded 46 points in the Warriors’ win over the Memphis Grizzlies to clinch the No. 8 seed and a play-in date with the Lakers.
The marquee matchup of the first-ever play-in tournament will renew a rivalry between two stars whose success defined the last decade. On Wednesday, Curry’s Warriors will play James’s Lakers at Staples Center to determine which team advances to the playoffs and plays the Phoenix Suns as the West’s seventh seed. The loser will get another chance and need to beat either the Grizzlies or San Antonio Spurs to claim the eighth seed and a first-round meeting with the Utah Jazz.
Curry and James are familiar with meeting each other on the biggest of stages, including in four straight Finals matchups from 2015 to 2018 when James was on the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Warriors won three out of four meetings, and Curry has a 15-7 postseason edge over James. Meanwhile, James holds a 9-7 advantage over Curry in the regular season. This first-ever play-in game is somewhere in between regular season and postseason.
But not since June 2018 have Curry and James met in a game with such stakes. Both took different roads to get here. Curry, still playing with the same team that drafted him, missed most of last season with a broken hand, hasn’t played with fellow Splash Brother Klay Thompson since 2019 and spent most of this season on a team hovering around .500 that appeared to prioritize rookie James Wiseman’s longterm development over winning.
“It was a little bleak in February and March, where we didn’t know what type of team we were going to be and we were really struggling to find our identity,” Curry said Sunday. “We’re in a good spot right now. We obviously know there’s a lot of work to do. No matter how the season goes, I’m really proud of the way that we’ve given ourselves a chance to make this season matter.”
Curry’s scoring surge starting in April propelled Golden State into the top rung of the play-in tournament, and the Warriors finished the regular season by winning 15 of their last 20 and Curry averaging 32 points per game, earning his
second career scoring title and leading James to assert he should be the MVP.
“Just look what he’s done this year,” James said of Curry. “Everybody counted him out this year. Everybody was saying
now that Klay was hurt, can Steph carry a team on his own, carry a team into the postseason, keep a team afloat? He's done that and more.
“If Steph's not on Golden State's team, then what are we looking at? We get caught up in who has the best record instead of just saying who had the best season this year? Steph has had, in my opinion, the best season all year.”
Meanwhile, after leading the Lakers to the 2020 championship in the bubble, James has missed 27 games in the most injury-plagued season of his career. Despite starting the season 21-6, seemingly on pace to repeat as NBA champions, James suffered a high ankle sprain and Los Angeles tumbled down the standings and into the play-in tournament, much to James's annoyance.
“Whoever came up with that s— needs to be fired,” James said earlier this month after his Lakers lost six of seven games and were on the brink of falling to the No. 7 seed of the play-in tournament.
But that annoyance must morph into urgency. There is clearly mutual respect between Curry and James, between the Warriors and the Lakers. But none would like more than to come out on top of this intrastate showdown and send the other to a win-orgo-home game on Friday.
Of course, everything emanates from these two future Hall of Famers, but they alone won't decide who wins Wednesday. Here's a look at the biggest questions and Xs and Os that will.
Can they learn anything from the regular-season meetings?
The Lakers took the season series 2-1, but only one of those games, way back on Jan. 18, featured both teams at full strength. In that meeting, the Warriors came back from 19 points down to win 115-113. At the time, the Lakers were 11-4 and the Warriors were 7-6.
Curry scored 26 points, including 19 in the second half, but was held to 8 for 22 shooting and 3 for 12 from 3-point range. He got help from Kelly Oubre Jr. (23 points), Eric Paschall (19) and Andrew Wiggins (18).
The Lakers stars had a tough night at Chase Center. James finished with just 19 points, making just two shots outside the paint, five rebounds and five assists. Anthony Davis had 17 points on 6 for 16 shooting but did grab 17 rebounds. Davis did not play in either of the next two matchups, both won by the Lakers.
Both teams have changed a lot since then. The Warriors lost James Wiseman for the season with a knee injury, Oubre won't return in time for Wednesday's game with a left wrist injury, and Steve Kerr settled on an eightman rotation that leans heavily on Kevon Looney, Jordan Poole and Juan Toscano-anderson.
The Lakers added center Andre Drummond and have managed to remain No. 1 in defensive rating even with James and Davis missing a combined 81 games. It's more helpful to look at the early-season Lakers, or even last season's version, to understand what Golden State will face.
Like last season, the Lakers rank near the bottom of the league in 3-point shooting efficiency. They saw a small uptick in the playoffs to go from bad to average, but where they really did their damage was in the paint, from where they score 42.2% of their points. Even more of their points are coming in the paint this season.
Against the Warriors, does James go full bullyball? Despite their lack of size, the Warriors actually do a solid job of defending the paint, but in the lone matchup against the healthy Lakers, James, Davis and Co. bludgeoned them for 58 points in the paint — a mark that would rank dead last in the league for the season.
Who guards Lebron James?
In three meetings this season, Oubre spent the most time defending James. Of course, Oubre won't be available Wednesday, so that responsibility will likely fall on Wiggins. Wiggins has been Golden State's best perimeter stopper all season. He's stronger than he looks and contests more shots than any other wing defender in the league, often against the opponent's top scorer. James shot 3 for 6 in the limited time Wiggins defended him this season.
James is methodical in hunting matchups. If he feels bothered by Wiggins, he'll seek out a screen and get switched onto a preferred matchup. The obvious target is Curry. Curry has improved on defense since James bullied him in the 2016 Finals, but he's still giving up size, speed and strength. Forcing Curry to work hard on defense could also be a way for the Lakers to tire him out before a second-half flurry.
It doesn't help Golden State that James's preferred pick-and-roll partners are guards. If James calls for Davis or a center to set a screen, the Warriors can feel comfortable switching Draymond Green or Looney onto him. But the two-man game between James and a point guard (Dennis Schroder or Alex Caruso) has been a pet play since last season and could put Curry in a pickle.
Kerr could counter by slotting Curry on Kentavious Caldwell-pope — a much less dangerous playmaking threat — and Kent Bazemore on Schroder, but that would leave Bazemore to deal with James after switches. Bazemore matches up better than Curry, but he fouls a lot — 4.3 times per 36 minutes, the most on the team. Gifting James easy points at the free-throw line is not ideal.
The best answer might be to just not switch at all and task Wiggins with fighting over screens and hounding James best he can. The drawback could be diminishing returns from a tired Wiggins on offense, but this is the choice James forces opponents to make.
Who guards Anthony Davis?
Over the years, whether Davis was on the New Orleans Pelicans or Lakers, the Warriors have confidently handed Green that assignment. In the lone meeting Davis was a part of this season, Green was his primary defender and limited Davis to 1 for 7 shooting. Clearly, the Lakers don't love this matchup. They spent a lot of time trying to get Green switched off Davis. Most times, Green recovered.
However, Davis did get four assists and the Lakers scored 29 points out of those situations. The problem with Green guarding Davis one-onone is that it takes away from him being able to wreak havoc as a help defender. Instead of blowing up possessions with a well-timed deflection, Green's attention is on limiting Davis. That frees up the rest of the Lakers to do stuff without the threat of Green lurking.
In January, Golden State tried to put Looney on Davis, and it was effective in a short stint as Davis missed three of his four shots in the two minutes guarded by Looney. But that's a small sample, and what can anyone do against this?
Plus, Looney is the Warriors' only option to deal with the Lakers' bigger centers Marc Gasol, Andre Drummond and Montrezl Harrell. If the Warriors can live with Gasol or Harrell shooting, they could try to unlock Green as a rover by slotting him on one of those three and ignoring them until they crash the paint.
But then, of course, that's an invitation for them to feast on offensive rebounds. That's a tough trade-off for a team that already gives up the second-most offensive rebounds in the league.
What happens when the Lakers go “small” with Davis at center?
Lineups with Davis at center is Vogel's seldomused trump card. As the Lakers have sorted through their three centers this season, Davis has played just 10% of his minutes at the five this season. But dating back to last season, they are elite in those constructions. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Lakers this year are blowing away opponents by 16.9 points per 100 possessions when Davis is on the floor without another center to clog the lane and scoring 118.7 points per 100 possessions — a higher rate than the super-team Brooklyn Nets.
The question is if Vogel is ready to break the glass on such lineups, or if he'll see first what his trio of centers can do. The guess here is that the Lakers will start big and see if they can rebound their way to a win, with a quick hook facing each center before ultimately going small. Harrell may be the best option for Los Angeles, since he can crash the glass and keep up with Golden State's pace.
If things get out of hand early, the Warriors could go small and try to turn the game into a track meet. That could provide problems for the Lakers and their dearth of 3-point shooting. Golden State plays at the third-fastest pace and makes the thirdmost 3-pointers per game in the league.
The Warriors are not as talented as the Lakers, but they could win by cranking up the variance.
Who guards Stephen Curry?
Most teams this season have elected to double Curry when he crosses halfcourt or designate a defender to face-guard him throughout the game. The Lakers will do a little of both.
In three meetings this season, Schroder has held Curry to 6 for 19 shooting, including 3 for 13 from 3-point range. He and Caruso will be Curry's primary defenders (Curry was 3 for 7 in two games with Caruso guarding him).
The Lakers don't tend to double early in the shot clock, but Vogel will wait until there are about 10 seconds left to blitz opposing ball-handlers — a hybrid scheme designed not to give up easy shots and pressure the opponent.
These are Curry's shooting splits in his three games against the Lakers this season — a far cry from his 32 points per game and elite efficiency. Clearly, the Lakers have given him problems:
Jan 18: 26 points on 8 for 22 overall, 3 for 12 from 3-point range
Feb. 28: 16 points on 5 for 13 overall, 2 for 7 from 3-point range
March 15: 27 points on 9 for 17 overall, 4 for 7 from 3-point range
But each of those three games happened before Curry's historic surge. This version of Steph is more dangerous, buoyed by teammates who help rather than get in his way.
Since Wiseman's seasonending injury, Green has gone from screening for Curry 9.2 to 13.2 times per game, and Golden State in those situations is scoring an elite 1.26 points per possession, per the Ringer. Toscano-anderson has also developed a rhythm with Curry, and likes to exploit the attention defenders pay the two-time MVP by slipping to the rim for wide-open dunks.
Davis is an ALL-NBA caliber defender and James this season has dusted off the skills that make him an elite help defender. They will do what they can to limit Curry and Green and force the other Warriors to beat them. Prediction
This may not technically be a playoff game, but it's a game with a playoff feel considering the talent, stakes and egos involved. Kerr, Curry, Green, Vogel, James and Davis will all be ready with first punches and counters. But look at the questions above. In the end, the Lakers need to figure out how to stop one player and the Warriors need to solve how to stop two.
The prediction here is that the Lakers win on their home court, and the Warriors take on the winner of the 9-10 game Friday on theirs.