TRAVERS DAY PREVIEW
Tiz the Law seeks glory, Ballerina between three
This afternoon Tiz the Law will attempt to become the first favorite to win the Travers since Alpha (2-1) dead-heated with 33-1 Golden Ticket in 2012. There have been genuine upsets during this period, Keen Ice running down Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015 being the most notable. A case could be made, though, that he last four Travers Stakes were won by horses who, while not the post-time favorites – Arrogate (11-1), West Coast (61) Catholic Boy (7-1) and Code of Honor (4-1) – were still the best horses in the race.
The stars appear to be aligned this year. Not only will Tiz the Law likely go off as the odds- on choice, but few would argue that he isn’t the best horse in the field. The NY-bred son of Constitution is a three-time G1 winner; collectively, his seven rivals have won a total of three graded races, all G3s. The Barclay Tagg trainee has been working well at Saratoga and has shown no sign of losing the edge that carried him to victory in the Florida Derby and Belmont Stakes.
Nevertheless, they still have to run the race. And the field Tiz the Law faces today includes a couple of lightly raced 3-year- olds with demonstrated ability and whose potential at this point is unclear.
One of those horses is Bob Baf
fert’s Uncle Chuck, who is making just his third career start in the Travers, following a maiden win on June 12 and a convincing win in the Los Alamitos Derby on July 4. Uncle Chuck was flattered when Thousand Words, the runner-up in that race – also conditioned by Baffert – bested Honor A. P. last weekend in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar. At the rate Baffert has been winning major races of late, any horse he sends out is ignored at one’s peril.
Max Player has only raced twice this year, but he acquitted himself well in both. The Linda Rice trainee was a 3¼-length winner of the Withers back on Feb 1 and then closed well to get up for third in the Belmont. The other graded winner in the field is the Chad Brown- conditioned Country Grammer, a neck winner over fellow Travers entrant Caracaro in the Peter Pan.
The remainder of the field consists of Florida Derby runner-up Shivaree, multiple G3-placed South Bend and maiden winner First Line.
Test Stakes (G1)
Only five sophomore fillies could be coaxed into signing on to face Gamine (3- 5 on the morning line) in today’s Test
Stakes. After the Into Mischief f i l ly’s otherworldly performance in the Acorn, however – an 18 ¾-length margin of victory in stakes-record time – it may be surprising the race has drawn as many entrants as it has.
Venetian Harbor is given the best chance to upset at 8-5. The Munnings filly cuts back to seven furlongs after racing around two turns in her first three 2020 starts: a win in the Las Virgenes and seconds in the Fantasy and Ashland. Perfect Alibi and Wicked Whisper were G1 winners as 2-year- olds but both are listed at 20-1 in this spot.
Ballerina Stakes (G1)
The three morning-line favorites are all coming off losing efforts in what appears to be a highly competitive edition of the Ballerina. Six-year- old Come Dancing (3-1), last year’s Ballerina winner, was upset at 4- 5 by longshot Victim of Love (27-1) in the
Vagrancy (G3) on June 27. In her most recent start, Bellafina (9- 5) was upset at 1-2 in the Great Lady M at Los Alamitos after starting off the year with a win in the six-furlong Desert Stormer.
Serengeti Empress (5-2) was runner-up in the 2019 Test, her only start at less than a mile over the past two years. The daughter of Alternation has won one of four starts in 2020; most recently, she was fourth in the Fleur de Lis.