Chamber hears pundit’s views
Pennsylvania is seen as key in primary and general election
LIMERICK » The 2020 presidential race can be summed up in one word — uncertainty.
That was the message Wednesday from Terry Madonna, the director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, speaking to about 120 TriCounty Area Chamber of Commerce members.
Madonna’s talk — “The Politics of a Divided America” — focused on the reelection campaign of President Donald Trump. He also addressed the results of this week’s “Super Tuesday” primary voting to determine who will be the Democratic nominee and the importance Pennsylvania will play in both the primaries and the November general election.
Madonna spent quite a bit of time discussing Tuesday’s primary results — which he called “stunning.”
Former Vice President Joe Biden won nine of 14 states that voted on Super Tuesday, while U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, (D-VT) captured four states (Maine had not yet finalized results by press time).
Biden had lost the first three contests: Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, but won in South Carolina over the weekend.
“This is really something I have never seen before. After Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, the question was — could Biden stay in the contest. He was pretty much written off as done, and Sanders was likely to be the nominee,” Madonna said.
Madonna said just a couple of days ago, discussion about the race for the Democratic nomination centered on whether Biden could “hold Sanders at the end of Super Tuesday” to a lead of about 120 to 140 delegate votes.
Biden now leads in the delegate count with 513 delegates to Sanders’ 461.
“Biden is now the front runner for the nomination at the Democratic convention in July,” he added.
So, what happened?
“The Democratic establishment reached the conclusion that Trump could beat Sanders and rallied behind Biden. Voters rallied around Biden because of their deep concern that Trump could beat Sanders,” Madonna said.
Madonna added that late deciders cast their votes for Biden, according to exit polls. In addition, African American support went to Biden, as did the support of people over the age of 45. He also garnered the support of suburban, college-educated Democrats.
“The bottom line is — this was a stunning turnaround for Biden,” he said.
For Sanders, his base of young supporters did not come out in the numbers that were expected, Madonna said of exit polling he saw. There are 80 million millennials, those aged 23 to 38, in the U.S., he added, the largest single age cohort in the country.
Madonna added that it does not look likely that one candidate will achieve the 1,991 delegate votes needed to lock down the nomination on the first vote at the Democratic convention this summer.
He told the group that Pennsylvania’s primary, which will be held April 28, could matter for the first time since 1952. That means the candidates may be visiting Pennsylvania more
between now and then.
Pennsylvania will also hold a key role in the general election, Madonna said.
The state was key, he said, in the 2016 victory of Trump, who implemented a strategy focused in several “Rust Belt” states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin.
This year, Madonna said Trump needs to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida, adding that Arizona and North Carolina will likely be battleground states as well.
Madonna shared that Trump’s overall job approval rating stands at about 45%, while his approval rating on the economy stands at about 55%.
“You can’t make an argument that the economy is not better — in some cases substantially from when Trump took office in 2017,” Madonna said. “The fact of the matter is, the single biggest reason he doesn’t hold a higher overall job performance rating and why he, at this point, is not looking at an easy reelection has to do with one word — polarization.”
An estimated 94% of Republicans give the president a positive job performance rating, while only about 9% of Democrats provide a positive rating.
“It doesn’t matter if he has a horrible week — his job performance doesn’t change much because Republicans are so committed to him that there is no movement. Similarly, if he has a good week, the opposite is true, the Democratic support for him doesn’t go up,” Madonna said. “This incredible polarization dominates American politics and regardless of what happens nothing changes.”
Madonna said that no one can say “with certainty whether Trump will or will not win reelection to the presidency of the United States.
Madonna told chamber members that given his choice, Trump would prefer to run against Sanders, not Biden.
He added that there are two groups that are moving away from the GOP: college-educated women and young voters — GenZ (1822) and millennials (23-38).
The real battleground in the upcoming election is going to be the suburbs, Madonna explained.
“The GOP has to figure out what to do in the suburbs and to attract younger voters and college-aged women,” he said.
There are many uncertainties for the Democrats, Biden, Sanders and what happens to the reelection campaign of Trump, according to Madonna.
“But in this world today all bets are off about what is likely to happen. I use one word to describe what is going on in American politics — uncertainty,” he said.
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“You can’t make an argument that the economy is not better — in some cases substantially from when Trump took office in 2017. The fact of the matter is, the single biggest reason he doesn’t hold a higher overall job performance rating and why he, at this point, is not looking at an easy reelection has to do with one word — polarization.”
— Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs, Franklin & Marshall College