Niners will host the Packers on Sunday.
Niners significantly better than Packers: Expect another rout
Next Sunday, Green Bay will make a return trip to Levi’s Stadium with a berth on the Super Bowl on the line. I expect the second matchup to have a similar outcome.
Given the lopsided nature of these teams’ last showdown, the argument will no doubt be made throughout this week — for the sake of creating narrative and drama — that things have changed since that Week 12 contest.
But they really haven’t. At least not in any manner that would make the outcome dramatically different than the one in November.
We really don’t need to overthink this: Hubris is the only thing that stands between the 49ers and a trip to
the Super Bowl.
The 49ers and Packers might have the same record this season, but these two teams are worlds apart. The 49ers’ 13-3 regular-season mark was battle-tested, while the case can be made that the Packers, who lack a marquee road win this season, were the worst 13-3 team in league history.
The 49ers are better at running the ball than the Packers. They’re better at throwing the ball too. They are better at stopping the run than the Packers and better at stopping the pass. San Francisco’s special teams and coaching are better.
You might be picking up what I’m laying down, here.
That said, it’s hard to beat a team that you roundly outclassed once before a second time.
A full-contact sport like football requires unfettered commitment and unbridled energy. The 49ers could take a page out of the dynastic Golden State Warriors’ book and think they might be able to halfeffort their way to a win. That would be a fatal mistake.
But if the 49ers show up at Levi’s Stadium with the same hunger and juice they showed against the Vikings Saturday, another win is in the cards. Another big win.
Now, you might be saying “Hey, Dieter, the Packers have a great quarterback Aaron Rodgers — anything can happen.”
Indeed, anything can happen — any given Sunday and all that — but I would update your scouting report.
Rodgers is unquestionably an all-time great and a future Hall for Fame player, but — much like
Tom Brady in New England — he has looked nothing like his former self this season.
Don’t let Sunday’s game against a tired and depleted Seattle Seahawks defense fool you. Rodgers is no longer a transcendent player. His Pro Bowl selection at age 36 was one of reputation and voter inattentiveness.
Consider the fact that no one in the NFL threw the ball away more than Rodgers this year. In turn, he completed only 62 percent of his passes, 22nd in the NFL. His Total QBR (ESPN’s proprietary quarterback rating system) was on-par with Brady and rookie quarterbacks Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones. He had 10 games with a Total QBR under 50 in the regular season, the second-worst mark in the league (behind only Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky).
Yes, Rodgers made a great throw late in Sunday’s game against the Seahawks — a game-winning throw — but do not be fooled. We just went through a scenario like this.
Last week, the mental contortions that were made to validate Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins were truly incredible to watch. Cousins had been a milquetoast quarterback for 16-plus games this season, but he made an outstanding throw late in the Vikings’ first-round win over the Saints, so apparently every throw that preceded it was deemed moot.
Almost as moot as the Vikings’ offense in Saturday’s game against the Niners.
The same gaslighting effort is coming with Rodgers this week, except it will be stronger because he was — once upon a time — a truly great quarterback.
What Rodgers did in the clutch Sunday night was no doubt impressive.
For San Francisco’s sake, you’d hope it’s impressive enough to scare them a bit.
But context is important. The Seahawks defense was gassed and injured to high heavens — not to mention that their pass defense hasn’t been all that impressive for a while now (did you see what San Francisco did to them in Week 17?) Rodgers was operating in clean pockets for most of the contest, and yet he only attempted six passes that traveled further than 10 yards down the field. He had one “wow” throw in a contest of dinks and dunks.
That because the truth of the matter is that, these days, Rodgers is far closer to Cousins than he is to Russell Wilson, the quarterback he “outdueled” Sunday.
Cousins can only effectively operate in a clean pocket, same with Rodgers. Cousins doesn’t move around all that much. Neither does Rodgers. Cousins held onto the ball for an NFL-leading three seconds per throw. Rodgers holds the ball for 2.8 seconds per throw. Both are in offenses that require a potent run game to put points on the board and with questionable offensive lines.
This might come across as blasphemous, but the same truth from Saturday’s game against Minnesota applies to Sunday’s game against the Packers: if the 49ers’ defense can stop the run, the quarterback simply won’t be able to beat them.
The 49ers’ offense wasn’t clicking on all cylinders against Minnesota. But if Jimmy Garoppolo can avoid turning the ball over more than once, San Francisco’s offense — which finished with the second-most points in the NFL this past regular season — should roll over these Packers.