GEOFF CALKINS:
Once again, it’s the underdog, underappreciated Grizzlies vs. Errrbody else.
It’s refreshing, isn’t it? The way some things never change?
The Grizzlies can make Mike Conley the highestpaid player in the league.
They can hire a coach who is universally considered to be a rising star.
They can attract a max free agent for the first time in franchise history.
They can add a shooter off the bench, put together a well-regarded draft, and generally have the best offseason in franchise history, but they can’t persuade anyone outside of Memphis to actually believe in them.
Memphis vs. Errrbody, version 7.0.
The Errrbody in question is the ESPN panel of experts, which submitted its Western Conference summer forecast Tuesday.
As you doubtless recall, the Grizzlies finished seventh in the West last year, when they suited up 28 players, including Super Grizz, the Bongo Lady, Eric Hasseltine and several members of the custodial staff.
So this year, after resigning Conley and adding Chandler Parsons in free agency, the Grizzlies had to rank substantially higher, right?
Wrong.
The panel has the Grizzlies seventh again, with a record of 43-39. That’s one game better than last year, when the Grizzlies lost Marc Gasol for 30 games and Conley for 26.
Or, to put it another way, the ESPN panel believes these Grizzlies will do just about as well as a team that lost its best player for the last third of the season, that lost its starting point guard and then its backup point guard, that intentionally gutted the roster at the trade deadline, and that was — according to one of its own players — showing up to gunfights with spoons.
The Grizzlies are forecast to finish behind Oklahoma City, which
lost Kevin Durant to free agency. They are forecast to finish behind Golden State, San Antonio, the Clippers, Portland and Utah, too. Outrageous, right? A fighting forecast?
Well, if I’m going to be honest about it, no. Not so much.
Listen, I like the franchise’s chip-on-the-shoulder attitude as much as any other Memphian. I’m not sorry it’ll be returning next year.
But I understand the panelists’ skepticism about the roster, and I share some of their concerns.
How does anyone know what kind of player Gasol will be next year, as he returns from his broken foot? Even if he remains healthy the entire season, will he be the same All-Star caliber player, or some diminished version of himself?
The same goes for Parsons. Who knows how his knees will hold up? Dallas declined to give him a max contract, in part because of his injury history. What are we to read into that?
Conley is said to be fully recovered from his sore Achilles. But he gets banged up every year. Randolph and Tony Allen will surely start showing their age, sooner or later. The bench — including two rookies at backup point guard — looks perilously thin.
As for David Fizdale, it’s impossible not to like the enthusiasm and championship experience he brings to the job. But the man has never been a head coach before. Remember what happened when Dave Joerger tried to get the Grizzlies to change their style during his first year? Maybe it will go better for Fizdale — I’m betting that it will — but all that remains to be seen.
None of which means the Grizzlies can’t leapfrog most of the Western Conference teams picked to finish ahead of them. I could see them finishing as high as second or third. I could also see them tumbling out of the playoffs altogether, if Gasol and Parsons aren’t at something close to full strength.
Indeed, I’m not sure any team in the league has a wider range of possibilities. Fifty-five wins seems totally reasonable, under one scenario. Another scenario could result in 35. And while I could absolutely imagine the Grizzlies finishing ahead of the Clippers, the Thunder, the Jazz and the Trail Blazers, I could also imagine them finishing behind the Rockets (picked eighth) the Mavs (ninth), the Timberwolves (10th) or the Pelicans (11th).
So crank up the outrage machine, if you’re in the mood to do that. It’s held up well over the years. But as for me, I’m just hoping these Griz stay healthy. Then Errrbody will be wrong again.