Your chances of dying by 2023? Test offers clue

CHICAGO — Want to know your chances of dying in the next 10 years? Here are some bad signs: getting winded walking several blocks, smoking, and having trouble pushing a chair across the room.

That’s according to a “mortality index” developed by researchers for people older than 50.

The test may satisfy people’s curiosity, but the researchers say their 12-item index is mostly for use by doctors. It can help them decide if costly health screenings or medical procedures are worth the risk for patients unlikely to live 10 more years.

The i ndex “wasn’t meant as guidance about how to alter your lifestyle,” said lead author Dr. Marisa Cruz of the University of California, San Francisco.

Instead, doctors can use the results to help patients understand the pros and cons of such things as rigorous diabetes treatment, colon cancer screening and tests for cervical cancer. Those may not be safe or appropriate for sick old people likely to die before cancer ever develops.

Items are assigned points; fewer total points means better odds.

Men automatically get 2 points. In addition to that, men and women ages 60 to 64 get 1 point; ages 70 to 74 get 3 points; and 85 or over get 7 points.

Two points each: a cancer diagnosis; lung disease; heart failure; smoking; difficulty bathing; difficulty managing money because of health or memory problem; difficulty walking several blocks.

One point each: diabetes or high blood sugar; difficulty pushing large objects.

The highest, or worst, score is a 26, with a 95 percent chance of dying within 10 years. To get that, you’d have to be a man at least 85 years old with all the above conditions.

For a score of zero, which means a 3 percent chance of dying within 10 years, you’d have to be a woman younger than 60 without any of those infirmities — but at least slightly overweight.