Ohio race may mirror Pa. battle Dems won

WASHINGTON — Roughly 180 miles separate Ohio’s 12th Congressional District from Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District. Democrats are hopeful that, come August, the political distance between those districts won’t be far at all.

Just as the western Pennsylvania district seemed the epicenter of the political universe in March when Democrat Conor Lamb beat Republican Rick Saccone to win a district that

President Donald Trump earlier carried by 20 points. Democrats in central Ohio’s 12th District are hopeful that Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor might upset decades of political tradition by beating Republican state Sen. Troy Balderson in the Aug. 7 special election to replace Rep. Pat Tiberi. Trump won the Ohio district in 2016 by 11 points.

At first glance, the similarities between the districts seem striking. Both are GOP-leaning areas in Midwestern manufacturing states, districts with strong rural populations yet close enough to major cities to have a good-sized chunk of suburban voters.

Also similar is how Lamb, 33, and O’Connor, 31, have approached their race. Both have appealed to working class voters and emphasized their roots in the district. Both also have criticized House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, with O’Connor repeatedly telling national reporters he would not support her for speaker if he were elected and Democrats reclaimed the majority.

But the true test of similarity might be the degree of interest that O’Connor Balderson

groups from outside the region devote to it in the months ahead. Two months out, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a group affiliated with House Speaker Paul Ryan, has dumped $250,000 for 10 days of advertising supporting Balderson. It also opened an office in the district with one full-time staffer and, Republicans hope, an army of volunteers to canvass for Balderson.

That’s a pittance compared to the Pennsylvania race, where outside groups poured an estimated $12.4 million into the race. In Ohio, it’s early, but so far only Ryan's group has shown up.

Corry Bliss, the head of the Congressional Leadership Fund, said his group weighed in two months before the vote to “educate” Ohio voters about O’Connor.

“I fully expect national Democrats to spend millions and millions of dollars trying to prop up Danny O’Connor,” he said. “That’s why we engaged early.”

And just as Trump campaigned for Saccone in Pennsylvania, Vice President Mike Pence was in town last week to raise money for Balderson. Ryan also has hosted fundraisers for Balderson.

Outside Democratic groups have yet to invest significantly in the district, though O’Connor ran four days of ads last week that appeared to ally him with working class voters that were inclined to vote for Trump in 2016.

David Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Akron, said he’ll be watching for whether Democrats send in surrogates as well.

“Is Joe Biden going to be making the trip to the Columbus area?” he asked. Biden stumped for Lamb in Pennsylvania and was in Cleveland over the weekend on behalf of Sen. Sherrod Brown. “That’s something to look for.”

Still, party officials say they feel like they have a shot.

“I feel like there’s a lot of energy with the Democrats in Ohio,” said one Democrat close to the national party who spoke only on condition that he not be named. He wouldn’t say how much money Democrats were prepared to invest in the race, but “we’re going to do what’s best to help him win.”

“Danny’s campaign is about a new generation of leadership in both parties, meaning he won’t support Nancy Pelosi for leader