CBO: Millions would be uninsured
WASHINGTON — In a major setback to congressional Republicans, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects that by 2026 as many as 24 million fewer Americans will have health insurance if Congress scraps Obamacare and replaces it with a more free-market approach backed by House GOP leaders.
The report, released Monday and produced by the office that calculates the cost and impact of all new laws, calculates that within a decade, the number of Americans without health coverage from the current law — either through the individual market or from Medicaid — would increase to 52 million compared with 28 million today.
Although the report projects that the House Republican leadership bill would reduce future federal deficits by $337 billion in 10 years, it showed that much of that savings would be achieved because millions of Americans would
lose coverage that they currently have through individual insurance policies or Medicaid, the joint federal and state program that provides health care to low-income people.
Republicans say the CBO analysis shows their plan saves taxpayers $880 billion by capping Medicaid spending for the first time; cuts premiums by 10 percent after 10 years; lowers taxes by $883 billion; and increases choices for consumers.
Signed into law by thenPresident Barack Obama, the 2010 Affordable Care Act law expanded health insurance through federally subsidized individual insurance policies sold to middle-income people through federal or state marketplaces, and expanded Medicaid eligibility to allow families of four earning as much as $34,000 a year to qualify.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich relied on the additional Medicaid dollars to extend coverage to 700,000 low-income Ohioans. Kasich has emerged as a major critic of the House Republican efforts to scale back Medicaid coverage.
The CBO report said if Republicans scrap the federal requirement that people either buy subsidized policies in the federal or state marketplaces
or face a penalty, as many as 14 million Americans would not buy individual policies next year. By contrast, those staying in the marketplaces would see premiums on their individual policies increase by as much as 20 percent by 2020.
The report, however, did indicate that if Republicans gain approval of their bill, individual premiums would begin to decline after 2020. The price dip would result from a GOP plan to funnel $100 billion to the states during the next decade to provide financial help for high-risk people, and because younger and healthier people would buy more individual policies. The CBO warned of the GOP proposal “substantially raising premiums for older people.”
“More than 200,000 Ohioans have received treatment for opioid addiction through the Affordable Care Act, and we can’t leave them, working Ohioans, and people with disabilities with nowhere to turn,” said Sen. Sherrod Brown. “It’s shameful Washington politicians who get taxpayer-funded health care are continuing to force this bill on the American people even after learning it will take away coverage from 14 million Americans by next year.”
Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Niles, charged that Ohioans who voted for President Donald Trump last November “did not cast their ballots to inflict this harm on millions of their fellow neighbors.”
Ohio House Minority Leader Fred Strahorn, D-Dayton, said the bill he called Trumpcare would “pull the rug out from under the feet of millions of Americans.” He added, “More adults will die prematurely and more children will suffer.”
But U.S. Rep. Pat Tiberi, a Republican from near Westerville, said, “This new CBO report confirms that this plan will lower premiums and provide relief from the massive tax burden that Obamacare has put on middle-income Americans and small business owners.
“Right now, Obamacare is collapsing and people are paying more for fewer choices and lower-quality care. In addition to the American Health Care Act, the administration and Congress are also moving forward with reforms to cut red tape and encourage innovation and competition in the individual market.”
Outside the White House, Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price told reporters, “We disagree strenuously with the report that was put out.”
He would not concede that fewer people would have health insurance, saying, “We think that CBO simply has it wrong.”
“We believe that our plan will cover more individuals at a lower cost and give them the choices that they want for the coverage that they want for themselves and their family, not that the government forces them to buy.”
The former congressman contended that the CBO report looked “at a portion of our plan, but not the entire plan.”
At the same gathering, Trump’s budget director, Mick Mulvaney, criticized the CBO for assuming Medicaid changes will happen “on day one. It’s just absurd.”
The Republican bill would scrap federal requirements that small companies offer health insurance and instead offer a refundable tax credit ranging from $2,000 a year to $4,000 a year to allow individuals to buy insurance. The older the person, the higher the tax credit would be.
In addition, the GOP bill would eliminate Medicaid expansion by 2020 and instead provide states with a capped federal contribution for each beneficiary based on how much the state spent on health care in 2016.
The overwhelming majority of Americans receive health insurance through plans provided by their employers or from Medicare, the federal program which pays health costs for the elderly. The 2010 law was designed to extend coverage to millions of people who work for small companies that do not insure their workers or who did not qualify for Medicaid.