Leaders must rally the nation against political violence
The assassination attempt on former president Donald trump happened in seconds, but the broad trends leading to this event have been building for some time. since the COVID-19 pandemic, america has witnessed an era of political violence unparalleled at least since the 1960s. since the summer of 2020, the United states has seen political violence during some of the george Floyd protests; a deadly assault on the Us Capitol in 2021 to stop the peaceful transfer of power; waves of campus unrest to protest the conflict in gaza in fall 2023 and spring 2024; and near attacks on supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and numerous members of Congress from both parties.
to better understand this new era, i have been leading a research team at the University of Chicago Project on security and threats to conduct major national surveys of support for political violence among american adults, conducting more than a dozen in the three years since the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. these are fielded by NORC at the University of Chicago, one of the most respected polling agencies in the country, and rely on high-quality nationally representative samples that match the american adult population on a vast number of demographic, political, economic, social, and other factors. hence, we can reliably extrapolate the findings to the Us population as a whole.
the striking finding from our June 24 survey is that 10 percent of american adults — the equivalent of 26 million people — agree that
“the use of force is justified to prevent Donald trump from being president.” a third of these people own guns. a fifth think that when police are violently attacked, it is because they deserve it and a similar fraction have attended a political protest in the past year. in other words, a significant minority of americans are radically opposed to trump returning to power and they are politically active, with the capacity for violence.
alas, the assassination attempt against trump is directly in line with expectations based on these results. indeed, i was immediately concerned about the June 24 survey results and met with law enforcement just last week to begin to disseminate the findings in this critical group.
Worse, there are other findings that suggest reason to be concerned that political violence could escalate after the trump assassination attempt. Our June survey also found that 7 percent of american adults — the equivalent of 18 million people — support the use of force to restore trump to the presidency. this group has even more dangerous capabilities — with half owning guns; 40 percent thinking “people who stormed the Us Capitol are patriots”; and a quarter either being or knowing a militia member.
it is not a stretch to think that these radical trump supporters are seething after the attempt to assassinate the leader of their movement. hence, leaders must be prepared for political violence in retaliation in the coming months.
however, there is also reason for cautious optimism — if political leaders make a prolonged effort to tamp down political violence.
Public support for political violence is important because it encourages volatile individuals who may have their own reasons to act aggressively to take the next step toward violence. these volatile individuals may thus act out, because they are encouraged to think they are serving some greater good or even hope to be glorified as warriors for the cause.
We have seen this dynamic for how support for political violence makes actual violence more common and dangerous in the campaigns of political violence in Northern ireland in the 1970s through 1990s, Bosnia in the 1990s, and numerous other countries. We may now be seeing this unfold in the United states.
to break the dynamic, it is crucial for political leaders across parties to condemn political violence repeatedly and vividly even if it comes from people who support their political goals. it is easy for political leaders to condemn violence by the political “other,” but to really make a dent, they must connect with the audiences who hold them in the greatest respect.
specifically, our survey studies have found that the best messages to reduce support for political violence are those with a simple message: political violence, wherever it comes from, is illegal, immoral, and anti-american. Further, the messages should create a culture of prevention by encouraging political anger to be redirected away from negative expression as violence and toward positive expression as voting.
in other words, if people are angry about trump potentially becoming president, they should be encouraged to engage in political work to defeat him at the ballot box. if people are angry about trump potentially not becoming president, they should work on his campaign to win in November.
President Biden and former presidents Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, and george W. Bush have already given remarks along just these lines in the aftermath of the trump assassination attempt. every political leader at all levels of government — Democrats, republicans, senators, representatives, governors, and mayors — should adopt this simple message. if they do, the growing waves of political violence may subside and just maybe america can return to the peaceful traditions of elections that have made american democracy the shining beacon for the world.
The striking finding from our June 24 survey is that 10 percent of American adults — the equivalent of 26 million people — agree that “the use of force is justified to prevent Donald Trump from being president.” A third of these people own guns.