Seaborne grain exports rebound to near prewar levels
Kyiv’s shipments have been crucial to its economy
ODESA, Ukraine — the 700foot Liberian-flagged ship slowly sailed out of the ukrainian port of Odesa, past rows of yellow cranes and into the still waters of the Black sea. its hull was almost completely submerged, weighed down with corn bound for Bangladesh. Offshore, more grain-laden freighters had left the port, passing vessels about to enter.
It was mid-march in Odesa, and what seemed unimaginable just last summer, when a russian naval blockade paralyzed all commercial activity, was now a reality. the port was back to its usual hustle and bustle, the result of a military campaign that pushed russian warships out of ukrainian waters and secured a shipping route to markets abroad.
The operation has been so successful that ukraine’s seaborne grain and oilseed exports — an economic lifeline for the war-torn nation — are now approaching prewar levels, according to data shared with the New York times.
In the past six months, ukraine has exported 27.6 million metric tons of grain and oilseed through the Black sea, the country’s main export route, according to figures from the ukrainian sea ports authority. that is just 0.2 million metric tons short of the average export volume in the same period from 2018 to 2021, before russia’s full-scale invasion began in february 2022.
In the first quarter of this year, Black sea grain exports even exceeded prewar levels, according to the ukrainian data.
Estimates of grain and oilseed exports by Dragon capital, a kyiv, ukraine-based investment firm, and figures on the number of grain ships arriving in ukrainian ports collected by Lloyd’s List intelligence, a shipping-data company, point to similar trends.
Sal gilbertie, the head of teucrium trading, a us-based firm that sells securities tied to agricultural commodities on the New York stock exchange, said statements by ukrainian officials that seaborne grain exports were close to prewar levels were “accurate.”
Ukraine still faces a number of challenges that could prevent grain exports from stabilizing at prewar levels, including continued russian attacks on port facilities and a smaller harvest this year. the us Department of agriculture expects ukrainian grain exports to decrease in the near future.
But analysts say that the overall environment has been improving, noting that freight companies are eager to ship ukrainian grain despite the war. “the data shows that there’s no shortage of ship owners that are willing to take the risk and go in there,” said greg miller, a senior maritime reporter for Lloyd’s List.
Ensuring a high flow of grain exports is a strategic necessity for ukraine. grain and oilseed accounted for one-third of ukraine’s exports last year, said Natalia Shpygotska, a senior analyst at Dragon capital. they have become critical to sustaining ukraine’s war-ravaged economy and, ultimately, its war effort.
Tariel Khajishvili, the head of Novik LLC, a ukrainian shipping agent operating in Odesa, said that “it’s obvious that without grain exports,” the country’s economy would flounder.
After Russia invaded, Ukraine was forced to stop trade through the Black sea for several months because of russia’s military control of the sea, threatening global food security. in July 2022, a deal brokered by the united Nations and turkey allowed ukraine to resume exports through an agreed-upon Black sea corridor.