Central bankers puzzled by solid growth, low inflation

JACKSON HOLE, WYOMING — Against a backdrop of strengthening growth but chronically low inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and other central bankers are taking their measure of the global economy at their annual conference in the shadow of Wyoming’s Grand Teton Mountains.

With the prospect of new leadership at the Fed within months, investors will be listening for any hint of shifting interest rate plans from the policymakers. The most watched events will come today, when Yellen and Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, each address the conference.

Though a surprise announcement can’t be ruled out, most analysts expect no major policy changes to be announced by either leader. Still, central bankers going back to Alan Greenspan’s appearances in the 1980s have sometimes used the annual conference to send messages to the financial markets.

Yellen’s predecessor, Ben Bernanke, signaled a new round of Fed bond purchases in 2010 to try to invigorate a weak U.S. recovery. And last year, Yellen let markets know that more rate hikes were coming. The Jackson Hole conference, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, is in its 41st year.

The conference occurs as the Fed is in the midst of gradually and modestly raising its benchmark rate to reflect a strengthened U.S. economy. By contrast, the ECB is still buying bonds to keep keeping rates at ultra-low levels but may be preparing to slowly taper its purchases next year.

The official theme of this year’s conference — “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy” — is certainly timely. Though the global economy appears more stable than at any other point in the past decade, growth since the 2008-09 recession has remained sluggish in the United States and most other industrial countries. One consequence is that discontent has grown among groups that feel left behind, having helped fuel Donald Trump’s election victory and Britain’s vote to exit the European Union.

The stated topic of Yellen’s speech is financial stability, which may provide a platform to address concerns that the Fed’s ultra-low rates have fueled asset bubbles in the stock market. Many Fed offi-

cials, including Yellen, have said they do not think asset prices have reached dangerous heights.

The Fed has raised its key policy rate twice this year, in March and June. It’s still signaling that it plans to raise rates a third time before year’s end and to begin paring its bond portfolio — a move that could increase rates on mortgages and some other loans.

BRENNAN LINSLEY / ASSOCIATED PRESS 2016 Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak at the annual conference of the world’s central bankers today in Wyoming. The stated topic of Yellen’s speech is financial stability.