MORE THAN A BACKUP
How Kuemper’s success affects Coyotes’ future
When Coyotes President of Hockey Operations and General Manager John Chayka went out and acquired Darcy Kuemper last season, there was little sense that the addition would move the needle for the Coyotes.
At the time, Coyotes No. 1 goaltender Antti Raanta was playing exceptionally well. In six appearances prior to the trade for Kuemper on Feb. 21, 2018, Raanta had posted a 4-0-1 record to go along with a .954 save percentage.
The general premise was that Kuemper was simply an upgrade over Scott Wedgewood, who was sent to Los Angeles along with Tobias Rieder in the deal, and provided some depth beneath Raanta. The subsequent signing of Kuemper to a two-year contract extension after the trade displayed the club’s faith in Kuemper as a serviceable backup.
But given Kuemper’s stunning success this season, it’s clear that perhaps even the Coyotes have had their expectations exceeded.
A strong case can be made that Kuemper has been the Coyotes’
most valuable player this season, a prediction that would have yielded some strange glances had you made that statement back in October.
But in 34 games since Raanta went down with a knee injury on Nov. 27, Kuemper has posted a 20-11-3 record to go along with a .924 save percentage and a 2.40 goals allowed average. Over that span, Kuemper ranks sixth in wins, fifth in save percentage and seventh in GAA among NHL goaltenders with at least 25 appearances within that time frame.
“It’s been fun,” Kuemper said of the increased workload. “Your whole career this is what you hope for. You want to be playing every night. It’s been a lot of fun and being able to go out there and help contribute is a great feeling. It’s been a great ride for the whole team.”
Entering play Saturday, Kuemper had already shattered career-highs in appearances (45) and minutes played (2,663) but he’s also eclipsed personalbests in more advanced statistics such as goals saved above average (GSAA), which calculates goals prevented based on individual save percentage and relative to the league-average save percentage on similar shots, and goalie point shares (GPS), which measures the number of points contributed by a goaltender due to his play in net.
Prior to this season, Kuemper had never posted more than 11 GSAA or a GPS rating of more than six. Entering play Saturday, Kuemper had 17.02 GSAA and a GPS rating of 9.6, marks that ranked sixth and ninth among qualified NHL goaltenders, respectively.
Moreover, Kuemper’s previous high in appearances was 31 set in 2014-15 when he was a member of the Minnesota Wild. Kuemper was set to hit 46 appearances this season upon his scheduled start on Saturday at Gila River Arena.
“The poor guy,” Tocchet said of Kuemper. “I mean, his whole career he’s basically been a backup goaltender. If he plays a game, he might not play for another two weeks. These last two months, he knows it’ll be him eight or nine times out of 10. In those bigger moments he’s staying real calm. When he’s
calm in the net, he’s a really good goalie. Like any goalie, when they get antsy they struggle.
“For me, his demeanor the next day has been great. He can be the first star one day and come in tomorrow, puts his pads on and gets out there. I love that about him. I don’t think he’s getting bothered by the noise around him and I think that’s been key. I think goalies need to shut out the noise and just play, and he’s done a great job at doing that.”
Just like the Coyotes have had to manage Kuemper’s increased workload down the stretch, Kuemper’s brilliant play means they will also have to navigate an intriguing goaltending situation from both a short- and long-term standpoint.
According to a source, there is a solid chance Raanta could be healthy enough to return in the playoffs, should the Coyotes make it that far. Entering play Saturday, the Coyotes held a three-point cushion for the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference.
That being said, is there a chance that Raanta could jump back in and man
the Coyotes’ net come playoff time? Or has Kuemper earned the right to sink or swim?
“We have Darcy, who has been unbelievable for us and has given us a chance every night,” Coyotes goaltending coach Corey Schwab said. “He’s our guy, which means he’s our guy today and we’ll see what tomorrow brings. He’s done a great job at instilling confidence in the whole team. As far as how or when Antti Raanta is going to be back, nobody really knows. That’s a whole separate issue.
“It’s not even something for me to think about until we get there. Up until that point, there’s no question that Darcy has done enough to be the guy for us going forward.”
The real answer is probably somewhere in the middle. If the Coyotes do make the playoffs and Raanta is healthy, the guess here is that Kuemper will get the nod. But if Kuemper were to falter, the Coyotes could turn to Raanta.
Still, that’s only the short-term conundrum.
The Coyotes will also have to navigate what their goaltending situation will look like moving forward. They have Raanta signed through the 2020-21 season and Kuemper signed through next season. And there’s also Adin Hill and Hunter Miska, both of whom are restricted free agents at the end of this season, down in Tucson and vying to make the jump to NHL backup.
It’s important to note that Raanta, who served as the club’s No. 1 goalie when both he and Kuemper were healthy, posted statistics last season that rivaled the top goaltenders in the NHL. For as good as Kuemper has been of late — and most statistics show he has been a top-10 goalie this year — his numbers still do not compare to Raanta’s 2017-18 season.
If Raanta had accumulated just a few more starts last season, he likely would have received serious consideration for the Vezina trophy, awarded annually to the NHL’s top goaltender, but injuries derailed that possibility.
But therein lies the issue with Raanta — his health. Since being inducted as the Coyotes’ starting goaltender prior to last season, Raanta has struggled to remain on the ice as he’s dealt with a multitude of ailments.
If the Coyotes were to shop Kuemper in the offseason, there would almost certainly be a market there. He’d be an inexpensive ($1.85 million AAV), 28year-old goaltender coming off a careerbest season for a contending team.
Would it make sense for the Coyotes to sell high on Kuemper, even considering Raanta’s questionable longevity? Could they trade Raanta and keep Kuemper? Is Hill or Miska ready to step into a backup role?
Although these might not be questions Chayka has to answer right now, they will be pertinent topics this offseason. But right now, the Coyotes view the situation as nothing but a positive as they look to make their first playoff berth since the 2011-12 season.
“This is somebody we felt wasn’t just a backup but someone that could step in for a long period of time,” Schwab said of Kuemper. “You never know how guys are going to respond. You look at their body of work and what they’ve done in the past and you try to take everything in and say, ‘Is this a guy who can take the next step?’
“Darcy is showing us the answer because he’s playing as good as anybody in the league right now.”