Democrats ahead, but Republicans closing in

After a full week of in-person early voting in all of Florida’s major counties, Democrats remain significantly ahead — but Republicans are closing the gap in ballots cast in the presidential election.

As of Monday morning, 2.6 million Democrats had voted by mail or at early voting centers, about 354,654 more than the Republican total of 2.2 million.

A week ago, before the start of in-person early voting, there were 1.2 million Democratic mail ballots cast, which was

about 462,000 more than the number of Republicans who’d cast mail ballots.

No one knows for sure, of course, how those people voted. But political analysts believe, and public opinion polling also suggests, that the overwhelming majority of Democratic votes are going to the party’s presidential nominee, Joe Biden, and the overwhelming number of Republican voters are going for President Donald Trump.

Unknown: Just what no party affiliation/independent voters and members of various minor parties are doing with their votes. Their ballots totaled 1.26 million on Monday, up from about 500,000 a week earlier.

Even though social media is filled with hot takes about the implications, it’s too early to draw any sweeping conclusions based on the numbers so far, said Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political scientist who’ s extensively studied how people vote and tracks voting at the U.S. Elections Project.

Many factors, such as “Souls to the Polls” efforts on the final weekend of early voting could help Democrats. McDonald said Election Day tends to be a strong day for Republicans, and could put Trump on top. “We know that to be a very strong day for Republicans. Will the lead Democrats build from mail ballots be enough to withstand the number of Republicans voting on Election Day?”

Florida-based Democratic data analyst Matthew Isbell cautioned on Twitter against attempting to read too much into voting so far. “Look folks. Lets just make this clear: Any comparison from 2016 does NOT WORK considering the massive changes in voting method behavior this year. I’ve seen DEM and GOP spin taking advantage of this. Don’ t fall for it.”

Breaking records

In the next couple of days, Florida will exceed the combined total of mail votes and early votes cast for the entire 2016 election.

As of Monday morning, figures from the state Division of Elections show 6.02 million Floridians have voted early or by mail, which is 41.7% of the state’s 14.4 million registered voters.

In the 2016 presidential election 6.6 million people cast mail ballots or voted early.

Mail ballots: As of early Monday morning, 3.8 million mail ballots had been cast so far in 2020, up from 2.7 million for the entire 2016 election.

Early voting: For early voting, 2.2 million ballots had been cast so far; in 2016, there were 3.9 million early votes cast.

One thing is clear, McDonald said. “People seem to be very determined to vote this election. You are still getting long lines despite the rain.”

Voting patterns upended

The corona virus pandemic has skewed voting patterns. First, it’s made many more people interested in voting by mail than in person.

But public opinion polling shows that Democrats are much more concerned about COVID-19 than Republicans and that Democrats are much more likely to vote by mail. Democrats have, in fact, requested and returned more mail ballots than Republicans.

At the same time, this year has seen an extensive effort by Trump to discredit mail balloting as rife with fraud, even though independent investigations have uncovered nothing more than sporadic minor instances around the country and a presidential commission he appointed to look for systemic problems in voting disbanded without offering any conclusions.

But aside effect has been to less en Republican confidence in voting by mail.

The switch could have big consequences. For the last 20 years in Florida, Republicans have mastered voting by mail, using it as a major part of their strategy to mobilize voters. Democrats have preferred in-person early voting.

This year it’s switched. Early voting: As of Monday morning, 1 million Republicans and 767,000 Democrats have voted early. For the entire 2016 election, 1.43 million Republicans and 1.58 million Democrats voted early.

Mailvoting: AsofMonday morning ,1.18 million Republicans and 1.78 million Democrats have voted by mail. For the entire 2016 election 1.1 million Republicans and slightly more than 1 million Democrats voted by mail.

Even though more Republicans than Democrats are using in-person early voting, it’s not enough to overcome the Democrats’ advantage in mail ballots, McDonald said. “The ground that Republicans are making up in the in-person early vote isn’t enough to overcome the lead democrats have in mail ballots.”

Does it matter?

Turning out voters clearly matters in a state with a history of exceedingly close elections. In 2016, Trump won Florida’s 29 electoral votes with 1.2 percentage points more of the vote than Democrat Hillary Clinton.

The FiveThirtyEight average of Florida public opinion polls on Monday shows Bid en 2.2 percentage points ahead of Trump, 49.1% to 46.8%

The questions no one can answer for sure is if the large numbers of people voting before Election Day mean much greater interest in the election or show particular strength for one particular candidate. It might mean those things — or it could simply mean that each side is receiving votes that it would have received anyway if voting were conducted the old-fashioned way, in one day of voting on Election Day.

South Florida

The three largest counties in the state — Broward, Miami-DadeandPalmBeach — are Florida’s Democratic stronghold. With its enormous advantage in Democratic registered voters, Bid en is certain of winning the region. But he needs to have a big advantage if he’s to win statewide.

Conversely, Republicans need to hold down the Democrat’ s margin in South Florida for Trump to win statewide. As of Monday morning: Broward — 49% of the county’s registered Democrats have already voted compared to 41% of Republicans. By the numbers, that’s 309,982 Democratic and 111,989 Republican votes.

Palm Beach — 50% of registered Democrats have voted, compare to 38% of Republicans. By the numbers, that’ s 214,777 Democratic and 111,012 Republican votes.

Miami-Dade — 45% of registered Democrats have voted, compared to 47% of Republicans. By the numbers, that’ s 282,843 Democrats and 202,843 Republican votes.

Statewide — 48% of registered Democrats have voted, compared to 43% of registered Republicans.

In all three South Florida counties, Democrats are far outperforming Republicans in vote-by-mail ballots.

The picture is different with in-person early voting. In Broward, Democrats are significantly outperforming Republicans in early voting, but in Miami-Dade County Republicans are slightly ahead of Democrats in early voting and in Palm Beach County Democrats are only slightly ahead of Republicans in early voting.

Campaigns push

Both sides are pushing their voters to vote soon. On Saturday, the first weekend day of early voting — and the first day it was offered in all 67 Floridacounties—therewere efforts to generate interest in early voting.

Trump cast his ballot at a Palm Beach County early voting site on Saturday. He declared himself a Florida resident last year after he got mad at his longtime home state of New York. Also on Saturday, Vice President Mike Pen ce held rallies in Lake land and Tallahassee.

Former President Barack O ba ma campaigned on behalf of Biden in Miami-Dade County. And both campaigns had a range ofother activities. The Biden campaign and the Dolphin Democrats LGBTQ political club held a “Pride to the Polls” car caravan and rally in Wilton Manors.