Strong wind shear likely to keep tropical system from developing off Florida coast
Strong upper-level winds over the eastern Caribbean and surrounding Atlantic waters has narrowed the chances for a tropical system to develop offshore of Florida’s east coast and up toward the Carolinas.
The area of low pressure is still forecast to move northwest for the next few days in the general direction of Florida and the U.S. East Coast.
There’s still a chance the system could slowly develop before it is absorbed by a another frontal system later this week, experts at the National Hurricane Center said Monday.
Its odds of developing within the next five days, according to the hurricane center, were down to 10% as of 8 p.m. Monday.
“Strong forecast wind shear should prevent a tropical system from forming just east of the zone from Florida to the Carolinas this week,” AccuWeather chief meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
Wind shear is expected to decline starting midweek, however, which would make the Caribbean much more conducive for storm development as the season continues, according to AccuWeather.
October is one of the most active months for tropical activity in the Atlantic, particularly Florida.
If one more named storm forms this season — Wanda — experts say 2021 will rank third in the record books for the number of named storms generated in one hurricane season.
“Florida has been hit by about a dozen major hurricanes in the month of October since records began in 1851, which is more than any other state,” AccuWeather reported.
Hurricane Wilma hit Florida with deadly destruction in October 2005.
Hurricane Sam, still a sprawling storm, is expected to speed up then slow down near Iceland by midweek. Sam is forecast to continue to weaken as it moves over the open Atlantic. It is expected to become a post-tropical depression by Tuesday morning, the hurricane center said.
At 5 p.m. Monday, Sam was at Category 1 hurricane strength, several hundred miles east of Newfoundland, Canada, with top wind speeds of 90 mph. Sam is no threat to land, experts said.
Tropical Depression Victor was a remnant low by late Monday morning.
Wanda is the last remaining storm name for 2021, in a season that runs through Nov. 30. Any storms to form after Wanda would be named using an overflow list, which includes Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery, Foster, Gemma and Heath.