Dolphins draft comes down to one question
All roads lead to one question in the Miami Dolphins draft: Do they keep the No. 3 pick and swing for the greatness of Louisiana State receiver Ja’Marr Chase? Or trade down to a team needing a quarterback in exchange for more draft picks and, perhaps, DeVonta Smith later?
This isn’t just about what receiver you like. It’s about philosophy. Team-building. It’s about a Dolphins roster with only one great player using the best chance to add another versus adding picks that increase the odds for greatness in another fashion.
(Quick aside: This, of course, assumes the top option of trading for DeShaun Watson isn’t on the table. That Houston pulls back.
That someone outbids the four, first-round picks on the table — and the No. 3 pick could multiply into three by itself.)
The case for keeping the No. 3 pick depends on how you feel about Chase more than any other player. Oregon tackle Penei Sewell sounds great, but the Dolphins invested in two tackles last draft. If they can’t trust their development, this whole plan is sunk.
Besides, you need a good offensive line, not a great one to contend for Super Bowls. The four finalists this year again showed that. What you need is a great quarterback and a couple of great playmakers. Chase is the breakthrough talent (an NFL scout scolded me after a recent column mentioning Smith first).
“It’s not that close, really,” he said. “Look, Smith is a great player, but lacks the size you want. Chase has everything you look for — size, speed, playmaking. The comparison is [Arizona great] Larry Fitzgerald.”
Cornerback Xavien Howard is the one great player this team has. That’s, in part, because they: (a) dumbly traded away Minkah
Fitzpatrick, a two-time All-Pro starter in his three years; and (b) smartly trading Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil for two first-round picks and a second-round pick.
Chase fits some recent metrics the Dolphins are using, too. They can be understood by Bill Parcells’ old line, “If he doesn’t bite as a puppy, he won’t ever bite.” The Dolphins are doing an NBA thing of late. They’re weighing rawer talent over more polished seniors.
Take two of the first-round picks last year. Tackle Austin Jackson, 20 when drafted, started as a sophomore at Southern Cal. Noah Igbinoghene, also 20 when drafted, also started as a sophomore at Auburn.
Chase fits that idea. He turns 21 in March. As a sophomore, he won the Fred Biletnikoff Award as the country’s best receiver. He was a unanimous All-American as a junior. He sat out last year. So there’s the No. 1 receiver the Dolphins lack or open Door No. 2.
They trade down. Quarterbacks will rise in demand, as always, as the draft nears. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence goes first, and Brigham Young’s Zach Wilson probably goes second. So the Dolphins’ third pick holds the spot where some team needing a quarterback could jump for Ohio State’s Justin Fields or North Carolina State’s Trey Lance.
Lots of teams need a quarterback, too. Could the Dolphins swap picks with No. 4 Atlanta for, say, a third-round pick this year and next year? Trade picks with No. 8 Carolina, as ESPN’s Todd McShay suggested, for a secondround pick (39th overall) and a first-round next year?
This has merit beyond the mere draft picks and beyond the chance of drafting Smith or Alabama receiving teammate Jaylen Waddle at a lower spot. Carolina could struggle again next year. Its pick might be in the top 10 again.
So beyond the stockpiling of top picks, this trade provides insurance if quarterback Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t show progress next season. You don’t have to believe that will happen. You need available options if you’re general manager Chris Grier, though.
Grier has worked the draft both ways. He didn’t trade down when he saw greatness in Fitzpatrick. He traded down in the pre-draft of 2016 to the 13th pick and picked up Tunsil there.
There’s no need to answer in February whether to use the No. 3 pick on Chase or trade down for draft riches. It needs studying. Mulling. I asked the NFL scout what he would do: “I’d let the GM make the decision — that’s why he’s paid the big money,” he said.