Forecast: East Coast may avoid storms

South Florida would escape a hurricane hit for the twelfth year in a row under the latest forecast issued in advance of the June1 opening of hurricane season.

The Hurricane Genesis & Outlook Project at Coastal Carolina University predicts that under the most probable scenario, no hurricanes will hit the eastern coast of the United States and one hurricane will hit the Gulf coast. The forecast calls for an average to slightly above average season, with 13 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes; three of them major.

Scientists involved in the study said the situation is complex and rapidly changing. Amongthe factors theywill be watching as they update their predictions are the El Niño phenomenon, in which the warming of the Pacific Ocean off South America suppresses hurricanes, and a cyclical warming of the North Atlantic ocean, which could fuel hurricanes. ElNiño is expected toweaken, but the question is howquickly.

“The scenario for landfalls is more complicated than in the last two years,” said Len Pietrafesa, research professor in the university’s School of Coastal and Marine Systems Science. “The most important climate factors which determine the most likely pathways of the hurricanes appear to be changing rather rapidly at this point in time.”

This forecast system, known as HUGO, is among the newest forecasting methods, having begun in 2013. But it claims considerable accuracy for its forecast last year, whenit correctly predicted a total of four hurricanes, with none striking the East Coast.

Although the forecast calls for no landfalls on the East Coast, it says they remain a possibility. The second most likely scenario is that one makes landfall on the East Coast and two on the Gulf Coast. The third most likely scenario calls for two striking the East Coast and none striking the Gulf Coast.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center forecast will come out May 27.

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