Will Trump start a nuclear war with North Korea?
Given the improbable events of the past two years, it is almost impossible for anything to happen that would really surprise the American people. They could, however, wake up any morning to a horrific shock: mushroom clouds billowing on the Korean Peninsula.
The Trump administration has given so many signals of its willingness to initiate a war against North Korea that they no longer attract attention. Like the case with much of what Donald Trump says, the public assumes these salvos are nothing more than empty bluster. But there are grounds to think the reckless talk will lead to even more reckless action.
In August, Trump told the North Koreans what to expect if they made any more threats against the United States: “They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.” That warning didn’t deter Kim Jong Un from conducting a nuclear detonation and additional missile tests, part of his quest for the capacity to execute a nuclear strike on the American mainland.
A growing number of important Washington figures think that prospect is so terrifying that it warrants a pre-emptive attack. National security adviser H.R. McMaster says the only option North Korea has is to give up its nukes — and “time is running out.” Dennis Blair, director of national intelligence under President Barack Obama, has recommended massive “air and missile strikes” on North Korea if it tests a missile in the Pacific Ocean.
The other day, Sen. Lindsey Graham told The Atlantic that “there’s a 3 in 10 chance we use the military option” — a figure he raises to “70 percent” if there’s another test. Based on their conversations, he says Trump “has 100 percent made up his mind that he’s not gonna let Kim Jong Un” deploy “a missile and a nuclear warhead that can hit America effectively.”
The prospect of war with North Korea appears to be far greater than most Americans realize. The administration has done very little to make the case for a pre-emptive attack or to prepare the public for the ghastly consequences that would probably follow.
North Korea’s thousands of artillery pieces can reach Seoul, a city of 25 million, as well as the biggest U.S. military base in the world. The Pentagon has estimated that in a conventional conflict, 20,000 people would die in South Korea each day.
But there is no reason to think the war would not escalate using nuclear weapons. The Pyongyang government is believed to have as many as 60. Even the most suffocating preemption couldn’t be expected to eliminate them all. Not only South Korea but Japan and the United States could be hit, incurring millions of casualties.
McMaster has somehow convinced himself that our possession of a huge nuclear arsenal
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