Chen aiming to become rare Republican to win office
State controller candidate Lanhee Chen is giving Republicans hope that he can do something the GOP hasn’t done since 2006: win statewide office in California.
Chen, of Mountain View, won the most votes in Tuesday’s primary, raised more money ($2.6 million) than Malia Cohen, his likely Democratic opponent, is tapped into House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s fundraising network and is well known in national GOP circles from his days as a policy adviser to the presidential campaigns of Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio.
As the son of Taiwanese immigrants, Chen could broaden the GOP’s reach beyond its base of largely white voters, party officials think. GOP Republican National Committee spokesperson Keith Schipper said Korean-American Rep. Michelle Steel’s presence on the ballot in 2020 boosted turnout among Republican Asian Americans by 14% in her Orange County district.
Republican Party chair Jessica Millan Patterson tweeted that Chen “is the only candidate who will hold California Democrats accountable for their fiscal irresponsibility.” Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a moderate Republican who is contemplating a 2024 presidential run, has starred in a fundraiser for Chen.
That all sounds promising — but the raw numbers of California’s polarized politics are stacked against Chen.
Start with the big one: Only 24% of registered California voters are Republicans, compared with 47% who are Democrats — and the partisans rarely cross lines to vote for someone not from their political tribe.
“It is fool’s gold,” said longtime California Democratic strategist Katie Merrill, who is not involved in the race. “There’s just no way because there are just so few Republicans in California.
“For a Republican to win statewide, you have to win an overwhelming number of independent voters and even some Democrats — and that’s not how independent voters and Democratic voters in California behave,”
Merrill said, noting that independents statewide typically vote more like Democrats.
Chen acknowledged this challenge after the polls closed Tuesday.
“To win in November will require an effort that hasn’t been seen in our state in a long time. We’ll need more volunteers to get my message out across California. We’ll need to raise more money to make sure we can tell voters across the state about my candidacy,” Chen said in a statement.
And while Chen won the highest percentage of votes (37% as of Wednesday) in Tuesday’s primary, he had the Republican field all to himself. His closest competitor was Cohen, the Board of Equalization chair, with 21%. But Cohen was sharing the left-of-center vote with three other Democrats and a Green Party candidate. Solidly in third place is Monterey Park City Council member Yvonne Yiu, a Democrat, with 16%. Combined, the four Democratic candidates won nearly 60% of the vote.
Beyond the raw numbers, Merrill said Chen is hampered by how “the Republican brand statewide in California is just so tainted. Even if there were a moderate Republican running, voters don’t trust that that moderate Republican wouldn’t have to ultimately be completely subservient to the right wing that dominates Republicans nationwide.”
Exhibit A: Conservative talk show host Larry Elder was the leading vote-getter among Republicans in the failed 2021 recall attempt against Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Chen has steadfastly refused to get pulled into the right-wing camp. He has declined to say whether he voted for Donald Trump in 2016 or 2020.
Cohen, his likely opponent, has made abortion rights a centerpiece of her campaign. One of the campaign advertisements she sent to primary voters didn’t mention any of her Democratic opponents. Instead, it featured her photo next to Chen’s under the headline, “Your choice for state controller is about protecting a woman’s right to choose.”
Chen has refused to say what his position is on abortion but has said he has no desire to change California’s abortion laws or restrict access to the procedure. He is a lifelong Republican and both Romney and Rubio — the candidates whose campaigns he worked for — are strong opponents of abortion rights.
While abortion may not be at the top of the list of the controller’s duties, the controller does sit on commissions such as the California Health Facilities Financing Authority, which retains oversight over health-related funding for public and nonprofit hospitals. And the controller’s job also intersects with abortion funding in that they oversee state spending — which includes funding for clinics where abortions are performed.
Cohen is expected to emphasize her abortion rights differences with Chen in the campaign, particularly if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, as it is expected to do later this month.
Both candidates are promising to be a tough watchdog on state finances, which is a primary job of California’s chief fiscal officer, someone who holds the power to audit any government agency that spends state funds. The controller also sits on 78 state boards and commissions, ranging from the protection of the state’s coastline to those overseeing health care facilities.
Chen has promised “an audit a day” and touts his GOP affiliation as a selling point in that he won’t be beholden to the Democrats who dominate state government. Cohen, who was endorsed by the California Democratic Party and was formerly on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, will stress her experience over Chen, who has never held elected office.
“California voters are disillusioned and want real accountability for how their tax dollars are spent,” said Cohen, who would be the first Black woman to hold the office.
The early sparring is a precursor to something that the controller’s race has never been: nationally watched. For many Republicans, this is the rare time when a GOP candidate has a chance — real or perceived — to win statewide office in California.