Sole runoff contest no clue to November
Republicans and Democrats alike are looking to Tuesday’s runoff election for an open Southern California congressional seat to provide an early glimpse of November’s dogfight for control of the House.
They might be disappointed.
Republican Mike Garcia and Democratic Assemblywoman Christy Smith, DSanta Clarita (Los Angeles County), are scrapping over many of the same issues that will play out across the country in the fall. But a midMay election with only the one race to attract voters is very different
from a November presidential election chockfull of ballot measures and highprofile partisan contests.
“This is a standalone special election, (and) even in normal times they aren’t indicative of anything” when it comes to the general election, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., which tracks ballot returns for political campaigns. “It would be like comparing crowd attendance at a preseason game and the national finals.”
In many ways, the contest in the 25th Congressional District, which includes parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, looks a lot like the battles in other California swing districts.
While Garcia, 44, has spent more than a decade as an executive for Raytheon Technologies, a major defense contractor, that’s not the part of his resume he focuses on. He’s “Fighter Pilot Mike Garcia” in his campaign literature, which features his name and title over stylized aviator’s wings.
A graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy, Garcia spent nearly 20 years in the Navy, flying jet fighters. In a congressional district where Latinos make up more than a third of the residents, he’s the son of immigrant parents and grew up in the district.
Smith, 50, who was raised in Santa Clarita, worked as an analyst for the U.S. Department of Education before starting an educational foundation. She spent nine years on the local school board and was elected to the Assembly in 2018, flipping a seat that had been held by Republicans for decades.
The partisan lines between the two are the ones seen across the state.
Garcia, who is making his first run for public office, bills himself as a proud conservative, saying on his campaign website that he believes in “the Constitution, Capitalism and Competition.” A supporter of congressional term limits, he has promised to “fight against Democrats’ dangerous socialist agenda.” Garcia is backed by business groups, veterans organizations and antiabortion activists, among others.
Smith touts her experience as an elected official, pointing to her work on education issues and gun safety and her support for immigration reform. Supporters include labor, women and prochoice groups and conservation organizations.
But there’s plenty in the runoff election that’s very different from the regular partisan contests.
“It’s a really interesting race,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego. “And it’s the atypical things that are the most interesting.”
While the district is one of seven in California that Democrats flipped in 2018, this isn’t a rematch. Two years ago, Democrat Katie Hill beat GOP Rep. Steve Knight in an election that highlighted the changing political landscape in what was once a Republican stronghold.
But Hill resigned her seat late last year after nude photos of her were circulated and her estranged husband accused her of affairs with a campaign aide, which she admitted, and a congressional staffer, which she denied. Knight attempted a political comeback, but finished a wellbeaten third in the March primary.
The race is also taking place in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, which has left both candidates and voters confined to their homes and forced a very different style of campaigning.
The virus means the election will be conducted almost entirely by mail, with only a handful of centers open for inperson voting. Election officials warn that only preliminary results are likely to be released Tuesday night, with counting likely to continue for days.
The race also is a test run for themes that the two parties will spread nationwide in November. In recent weeks, Smith has slammed Garcia for his support for President Trump, while the Republican has hit back against Smith’s record in office and her willingness to back House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco.
The stayathome orders haven’t hurt either candidate’s fundraising. As of April 22, Garcia and Smith had each raised about $2.2 million, with more than $300,000 apiece on hand. Outside groups and party organizations have spent more than $700,000 to support
Garcia and $500,000 for Smith.
Going into the final days of the campaign, Garcia looked to be the frontrunner.
“This election is not in our favor right now,” Smith’s campaign said in a fundraising appeal last week. “We’re behind in the votebymail count, Mike Garcia is outspending us with a nearly $300,000 TV adbuy and Donald Trump is attacking us on Twitter, relentlessly.”
But contests across California in the past few years have shown that Democratic voters tend to turn in their mail ballots late, which led to comefrombehind victories for their candidates in 2018.
What that means right now is a question mark, Mitchell said.
Because of the coronavirus, “this is an extraordinarily unique election,” he said. “We have zero understanding of what this data means for late ballots, or how these returns might change by election day.”
Whoever loses on Tuesday is sure to argue that the election for the few months left in Hill’s term really didn’t mean much and that the only vote that really counts is in November. And in November, Smith and Garcia will face each other again, this time for a full, twoyear term.
With the far higher turnout predicted for the presidential contest, said Kousser of UC San Diego, “the playing field will dramatically shift in November.”