Time could be right for House Dems thinking of retirement
Democratic Rep. Susan Davis of San Diego is leaving Congress after 10 terms. Don’t be surprised if she’s not the only member of the state delegation to go.
Across the country, 13 GOP members of Congress already have bowed out of the 2020 campaign. At least some of them faced the prospect of tough reelection campaigns and the grim likelihood of serving in a Democraticcontrolled Congress if they won.
None of the most senior Democrats in California faces a serious GOP challenge in 2020. But with the looming 2022 redistricting set to scramble the lines of the state’s congressional districts, the timing could be right for anyone already contemplating retirement.
With a huge Democratic turnout expected, incumbents who drop out in 2020 could virtually guarantee a successor from their own party and give the new kid a leg up by letting him or her run as an incumbent in 2022. Plus, they would avoid the potential hassles of facing what could be a virtually new district after redistricting.
That’s not typically the way it works, said Tony Quinn, a former GOP redistricting consultant who is now senior editor of the nonpartisan California Target Book, which analyzes California political races.
“In the past, (politicians) have wanted to see what their new districts look like before making a decision on retirement,” he said, and the new lines won’t be final until August 2021. “If some Bay Area congressman finds that his district suddenly has been extended out to Modesto, then there might be some retirements.”
But then there’s what can politely be called the No Spring Chicken factor.
At 75, Davis said in an online letter to her constituents that her decision not to run for reelection represents “a desire to live and work ‘at home’ in San Diego.” She said she won’t miss “the near weekly crosscountry commutes” and, in a shoutout to her family, said, “I look forward to working around your busy schedules rather than you accommodating to my often unpredictable one.”
There are plenty of other state Democrats who share Davis’ long years on the D.C.toCalifornia shuttle. Six members of the Democratic delegation are older than Davis, including San Francisco’s Nancy Pelosi (79) and Anna Eshoo of Atherton (76).
There are 12 other California House Democrats ages 65 to 74, including Barbara Lee of Oakland (73), Zoe Lofgren of San Jose (71), Jackie Speier of Hillsborough (69), Mike Thompson of St. Helena (68) and Mark DeSaulnier of Concord (67).
Put another way, there are nine House Democrats who were alive when Americans were still slugging it out with the Nazis in Europe.
Most if not all of those Democrats still are likely to run next year, and it would a shock if any of them were beaten.
But on the Republican side, 76yearold Rep. Paul Cook of Yucca Valley (San Bernardino County) is reportedly thinking about leaving Congress to run for his county’s Board of Supervisors. And at 84, Democratic Rep. Grace Napolitano of Norwalk (Los Angeles County) has been the subject of retirement rumors for years.
The filing deadline in California isn’t until Dec. 6. That gives folks plenty of time to decide whether they really need those frequent flier miles. John Wildermuth is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: jwildermuth@ sfrchronicle.com Twitter: @jfwildermuth