Brown’s declining ratings may hurt tax hike

Gov. Jerry Brown isn’t as popular with California voters as he was four months ago, according to a Field Poll released Friday, indicating the governor may have a hard time persuading voters to approve his tax measure in November.

Brown, who has a 43 percent approval rating, is still much more popular than lawmakers. The Legislature’s dismal 19 percent approval rating has declined slightly since February but is still not as low as the Field Poll record of 10 percent in September 2010.

The survey indicates a tough fight ahead for Brown, who is working to persuade voters to increase sales and income taxes in November as part of his plan to balance the state budget. The Field Poll found the governor is not trusted by a large number of voters — 43 percent — to do what is right to resolve the state’s $15.7 billion budget shortfall.

Brown’s ratings, which peaked in September at 49 percent, have been steadily slipping ever since.

“The longer these budget

travails take, the worse it’s getting for Brown,” said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. “I think voters will make their judgment come November based on the information they have in November, but I have always thought that part of Brown’s ability to get the tax increases enacted … was the extent to which voters trust him and hold government in high regard.”

Taxes a tough sell

DiCamillo said voters’ impressions of the governor will especially matter because increasing taxes is “something they don’t generally want to do.”

“As his image rating goes down, it doesn’t help his chances,” he said.

Still, voters seem to trust Brown more than lawmakers: Just 32 percent have confidence that the state Legislature will do what’s right to resolve the budget shortfall, with 65 percent saying they do not. By law, the Legislature must pass a balanced budget by next Friday — something that DiCamillo said could help the public hold them in higher esteem. But it won’t be enough, he added.

“I think there will be greater pressures on them to deal with other looming issues once it is passed, which includes pension reform,” he said. “The Legislature has to attend to the pressing issues of the state to the extent it can.”

The telephone poll, conducted May 20 to 29 among 710 registered voters, showed deep partisan and philosophical divisions among respondents. For example, a majority of Democrats, 61 percent, approve of Brown’s performance, while just 20 percent of Republicans gave the governor high marks. And 41 percent of independent voters commended the Democrat.

The differences also break down geographically. A strong majority, 58 percent, of voters from the Bay Area — Brown’s hometown region — think the governor has done a good job, while just 37 percent of respondents from the Central Valley and Southern California counties outside of Los Angeles approve of his performance.

In general, DiCamillo said, Democrats, center-left voters and Northern Californians are the most supportive of Brown, while Republicans and conservatives do not think he is doing well.

Independent voters key

Given Brown’s lack of popularity among Republicans, independent voters will be key to passing the tax initiative, DiCamillo said.

The Democratic-controlled Legislature doesn’t enjoy the same support from its party members as the governor, though Republicans are much more critical. Just 9 percent of GOP voters said they approve of lawmakers’ job, compared with 24 percent of both Democrats and independent respondents.

The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.