TECH ADVANCES WILL MAKE SANDAG PLAN OBSOLETE
Thirteen years ago, in 2008, while serving as a San Diego County planning commissioner, I became a field trial driver for BMW driving a Mini E electric prototype car. Driving a car powered by solar photovoltaic technology during those heady prehistoric years before any production electric vehicle (EV) was manufactured, we — BMW, Tesla, Nissan, General Motors, EV pioneers, policy makers and others — collectively dreamed, planned, conferenced, trialed, faltered and, ultimately, succeeded in crafting a better automobile.
At the time, this was the “better future” that I and many others envisioned would save San Diegans money on fuel cost, thus
enriching family budgets, and greatly reduce or eliminate the largest source of emissions in our region — fossil fuel-burning engines.
Here’s the point: What was an unknown future that only a few thought possible just 13 years ago is the very reality of today.
Today, we are at work envisioning a near future for transportation even brighter and less expensive.
There are two reasons we should pause on proposing to tax San Diegans.
1. An epochal change in our transportation system is just a few years ahead of us, a change that should give us all pause as we plan our future.
Just as sure as the transition to the EV in the past 13 years, we are now transitioning to autonomous transport. This transition is an iterative process that is well underway. Depending on your optimism or pessimism, Level 5 (or fully) autonomous driving in our cities is two to 15 years away. Currently, we are at Level 3 (conditional automation), moving quickly into Level 4 (high automation) of the autonomy scale.
Since the Ford Model T, an individually owned car has cost on average 70 cents a mile to operate, on an inflation-adjusted basis. An Uber/Lyft ride costs $2.25 a mile, a taxi ride costs $3.50 a mile, a bus or train ride is similar to or more expensive than a taxi when all subsidies are included.
Now, envision for the first time in history what will happen to the already inherent advantages of the car when the cost lowers from 70 cents a mile for a privately owned car to 25 cents a mile for an autonomous on demand car. The lower cost is principally because the autonomous electric car will be at work for 24 hours a day as compared to the one to two hours a day of a privately owned car. That incredible future is near.
Heretofore, the choices for our transportation planners have largely been private cars or public transportation. Which one do we fund improvements for? In the very near future, the choices will broaden to private cars, publicly available transportation (on demand) and fixed route public transportation.
The important question the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) should ask is: Can fixed route public transportation serve the transportation needs of low and moderate income San Diegans and serve them at less expense and more convenience than an on demand autonomous vehicle?
Remember, it’s not just service from home to work, but also traveling to and from the store, visiting family, running errands, taking kids to practice and other trips that may not be located at the end of a rail or bus line.
Publicly available on demand transportation, not private cars or public transport, will become the least expensive and most convenient way to get from point A to point B.
2. We are in a world health pandemic that is unprecedented with a future that is unknown.
Sadly, transit ridership on Coaster commuter trains has been decimated due to the COVID-19 pandemic — with ridership down nearly 90 percent between April 2019 and April 2021 because of desires to socially distance and stay away from large groups especially indoors for long durations.
The private auto has not suffered the same decline in spite of high fuel costs.
Will transit ridership ever fully recover? Or will future generations of San Diegans be mindful of social distancing, indoor crowds and personal space as these become learned behaviors cemented into our consciousness? Will we choose to ride in vehicles with fewer people inside?
This question has the most serious ramifications for transit ridership numbers, both now and in the future.
In closing, we haven’t faced a pandemic like this for 100 years. And we are on the cusp of the most dramatic change in transportation history.
Both of these events are epochal and unprecedented, and both are reasons our civic leaders at SANDAG should pause for several years to see how these two events play out. SANDAG is doing great work and is well led; however, now is not the time to choose a winner promoting several new taxes to pay for $160 billion in primarily fixed route mass transit, rail and transit central stations.