San Antonio Express-News (Sunday)
Despite what happened last week, ignore the math at your peril
Coaches stole some of the spotlight from players in Week 5 with aggressive fourth-down play calls that were second-guessed after those gambles backfired.
When decisions to forgo a punt, go for two or try for a touchdown over a field goal don’t work out, as it happened for Brandon Staley, Nathaniel Hackett and Josh McDaniels, the analytics skeptics grow louder.
Football, it’s often said, is a game of inches. There’s an implication in that axiom that football is a game ultimately determined by numbers and math. So, too, is the point spread. The models that handicappers utilize to set the lines each week are heavily data driven. The vast majority of the public’s approach to beating those lines is not.
There’s a reason one of the most efficient fourthdown teams this season is the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. And there is a reason the house always wins.
Last week’s record: 9-7 | Overall: 41-38-1
SUNDAY’S GAMES COWBOYS (4-1) AT EAGLES (5-0), 7:20 P.M., NBC
Line: Eagles -6 | Over/ under: 42
Cooper Rush didn’t need to do much — just 102 passing yards — to beat the Rams last week and keep the Cowboys unbeaten since Week 1. Dallas’ formula for going 4-0 without
Dak Prescott has relied on running the ball ably and leaning on their monstrous pass rush. As long as they stick to their strengths and protect the ball, there are fewer opportunities for Rush to make mistakes. Pick: Cowboys +6
BILLS (4-1) AT CHIEFS (4-1), 3:25 P.M., CBS
Line: Kansas City +3 | Over/under: 53.5
The week’s marquee matchup is a rematch of last year’s AFC divisional playoff thriller, in which Kansas City managed to force overtime with a final drive with only 13 seconds on the clock before winning in overtime. The Bills are favored to win this week, making this Patrick Mahomes’ first career game as a home underdog. Pick: Chiefs +3
RAVENS (3-2) AT GIANTS (4-1), NOON, CBS
Line: Giants +5.5 | Over/under: 45
The Giants were without their top four receivers in a win over the Packers in London and still scored on five consecutive possessions, including 17 unanswered points in the second half. The Ravens enter as favorites after beating the Bengals with a late field goal and riding Lamar Jackson’s MVP and contract campaigns. Pick: Giants +5.5
JETS (3-2) AT PACKERS (3-2), NOON, FOX
Line: Packers -7 | Over/under: 45.5
The Jets are perhaps the NFL’s biggest surprise this season, and the team’s confidence showed as it put up 40 points — New York’s highest-scoring effort since 2018 — last week against a hobbled Miami team. Despite the Packers losing to the Giants in the season’s biggest upset so far, they’re big favorites in this one.
Pick: Packers -7 49ERS (3-2) AT FALCONS (2-3), NOON
Line: Falcons +5 | Over/ under: 44.5
The Falcons lost to the Buccaneers last week on a questionable roughing the passer call against Grady Jarrett late in the fourth quarter, but they covered the spread as they have done every week this season. The 49ers should break that streak. Pick: 49ers -5
PATRIOTS (2-3) AT BROWNS (2-3), NOON
Line: Browns -3 | Over/ under: 42.5
The Patriots saw top running back Damien
Harris leave Week 5’s shutout of the Lions. He’s questionable for Sunday. Fortunately for New England, the Cleveland defense has struggled all year to stop the run. Pick: Patriots +3
JAGUARS (2-3) AT COLTS (2-2-1), NOON
Line: Colts -2.5 | Over/ under: 42
When these two teams met in Week 2, Jacksonville blanked Indianapolis. This week, they meet on the Colts’ turf, and the tables have turned. The Colts are 2½-point favorites, coming off an ugly win in Denver, while Jacksonville handed the Texans their first win of the season. Pick: Jaguars +2.5
VIKINGS (4-1) AT DOLPHINS (3-2), NOON
Line: Dolphins +4.5 | Over/under: 45.5
The injuries keep piling up for the Dolphins, who have lost two quarterbacks to concussions. The Vikings are 4-1, but a few of those wins involved them struggling mightily against bad teams. Minnesota has underperformed its market expectation and is 1-4 against the spread. Pick:
Dolphins +4.5 BENGALS (2-3) AT SAINTS (2-3), NOON
Line: Saints +1.5 | Over/ under: 43.5
Saints tight end Taysom Hill ran for three touchdowns and threw for a
fourth in a win over the Seahawks last week, and he joined Alvin Kamara with more than 100 rushing yards. But the Bengals haven’t allowed more than 23 points, and all three of Cincinnati’s losses have been by a field goal or less. Pick: Bengals -1.5
BUCCANEERS (3-2) AT STEELERS (1-4), NOON
Line: Steelers +8.5 | Over/under: 44
After Pittsburgh was trounced by the Bills on Sunday, one-way action on Tampa Bay moved the line on this game from 6.5 to as many as 9 points as of Wednesday. Somewhere along the way, there has been buyback on the Steelers. Pick: Steelers +8.5
PANTHERS (1-4) AT RAMS (2-3), 3:05 P.M.
Line: Rams -10.5 | Over/under: 40.5
The reeling Panthers are getting the biggest spread of the week, and so far the bettors have been eager to take them. Pick: Panthers +10.5
CARDINALS (2-3) AT SEAHAWKS (2-3), 3:05 P.M
Line: Seahawks +3 | Over/under: 51
The Seahawks have one of the league’s worst defenses, giving up 30.8 points per game, and the Cardinals are better than most of the teams that have rolled over Seattle. Pick: Seahawks +3
MONDAY’S GAME BRONCOS (2-3) AT CHARGERS (3-2), 7:15 P.M., ESPN
Line: Chargers -5.5 | Over/under: 45.5
Denver lost at home last week to the Colts in one of the ugliest games of the season, a bad defeat that gives no indication the Broncos can challenge the Chargers, a top-10 scoring team. But Wilson and company don’t need to win; they merely need to cover. Pick: Broncos +5.5