How will Taillon do after Tommy John II?
Studies reveal there’s reason for optimism
Jameson Taillon’s career to this point has been a well-documented roller coaster.
The Pirates right-hander’s peaks have been high. In 2018, he anchored the rotation with a 3.20 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning.
The most recent valley came in August, when Taillon had the second Tommy John surgery of his career.
This isn’t uncharted territory, necessarily, but it’s fair for fans to wonder just how likely it is that Taillon can return to what he was. Fortunately, some past examples help to paint a clearer picture.
On Aug. 14, 2019, coincidentally the day after Taillon’s surgery, the
Orthopaedic Journal for Sports Medicine published a study of the 69 pitchers who had a second Tommy John surgery between 2010 and 2016. It analyzed, among other things, whether or not the pitchers were able to return to play, how long it took them to return and whether they reached the level of success they enjoyed before their surgery.
From the Taillon perspective, the conclusions were mostly positive with a slight caveat.
The study found that 76.6% of
the pitchers returned to play, which was more than studies done in the past. Additionally, the average amount of time it took the pitchers to return was down from before at 484 days. The downside was that only 55.3% returned to pre-surgery level, which was lower than previous studies.
There have been many studies done on Tommy John surgery, but the most recent one likely fits Taillon’s situation better than others.
One thing it didn’t delve into that others have was the long-term effects two Tommy John surgeries can have on a pitcher.
In 2014, surgeons Robert Keller and Bill Moutzouros found that 33 pitchers who had a second Tommy John surgery lasted three years at the MLB level, on average, after their surgeries.
The positive here is that the bad outcomes, where pitchers didn’t return at all or didn’t return to their previous form, were for older players on the back end of their careers, such as former Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan.
Long-time reliever Joe Nathan was in a similar spot. He had his second surgery when he was 39 years old and returned, but he wasn’t the same.
Jarrod Parker was closer to Taillon’s age when he had his second surgery at 25 in March 2014. Parker had similar expectations to Taillon, too, as the projected opening-day starter for the Oakland Athletics that year. Where Parker differs — and becomes hard to project on any other pitcher — was that he suffered fractured elbow injuries in the next two seasons, effectively ending his career.
Perhaps, Nathan
Eovaldi’s case is more like Taillon’s.
Currently with the Boston Red Sox. Eovaldi, then 26, had his second Tommy John surgery in 2016 while with the New York Yankees. At that point, he had a career ERA of 4.21 and had struck out 6.6 batters per nine innings.
When he returned in 2018 with the Tampa Bay Rays, Eovaldi’s statistics were similar to ones he had posted in his career, with an uptick in strikeouts. It was good enough for Boston to trade for him to help with its run to the postseason. That’s when Eovaldi turned it on, knocking his ERA down to 3.33 with the Red Sox. He then won his two postseason starts, one in the ALDS and one in the ALCS, and became an unsung hero by throwing six innings in relief in an 18inning loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 3 of the World Series.
Eovaldi’s effort helped save the Red Sox rotation, and they won the World Series in five games.
But Eovaldi had problems in 2019 and had surgery for bone fragments in his right elbow. He returned but bounced between the bullpen and the starting rotation the rest of the season and finished with a 5.99 ERA in 67⅔ innings.
Now-retired, left-hander Chris Capuano is a good example of success after two Tommy John surgeries.
He was an All-Star with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2006, had his second surgery in 2008, struggled to return and regain his for a few years, then found himself with the Brewers in 2010 and the New York Mets in 2011. Including those two seasons, Capuano pitched five years with an ERA of 4.55 or less after his second operation.
It’s hard to say, exactly, what this will mean for Taillon. No example is perfect.
Plus, Taillon’s peak in 2018 arguably was better than what Capuano or Eovaldi had over an entire season.
For his part, Taillon has said he feels better about his recovery the second time around and that he is hopeful it will be smoother.
In the end, it’s fair to wonder what Taillon will look like when he returns. After all, by the time he is supposed to come back, the rotation could potentially be filled with young prospects. He could anchor and mentor such a unit.
But all that can be done right now is wonder. No matter the examples, only time will tell if Taillon can rekindle his old form.
• Statistically speaking: The Pirates’ last nineinning shutout from a starter came April 8, 2018, when Taillon allowed just one hit and struck out seven batters against the Cincinnati Reds.
• Know this: Taillon began throwing from 90 feet at spring training in February.
• They said it: “It took a couple of days. I thought about it, bought back into the rehab, and I’m surprisingly really excited to see where this takes me. Maybe it’s just because I’m so fresh out the surgery, but every little thing has excited me. So I can compare it to my first one. So I know my fingers aren’t as swollen this time. My arm’s not as sore. When I got out of my splint, I’m not as sore. My range of motion’s easier. So kind of holding on to these little things, that maybe this time will be different.” — Jameson Taillon.