The draft conundrum in backfield
Wait to see what Conner can do in final year of his deal, or draft the next back?
The Steelers find themselves in a curious predicament at running back, where they seem to have plenty of capable bodies but not one they can consider dependable.
They thought they had that with James Conner when he replaced Le’Veon Bell so effectively yet surprisingly in 2018. And they are still retaining hope Conner, a third-round choice from Pitt in 2017, can become that running back again.
But therein lies the problem.
Can the Steelers afford to gamble and keep their fingers crossed Conner can stay healthy for an entire season, something he hasn’t been able to do since becoming the starter? He missed six games last season and large parts of three others with an assortment of injuries.
After rushing for more than 100 yards five times in 2018, Conner had just one 100yard game last season. After having nine runs of at least 20 yards in 2018 — seventh most in the league — he had only two in 2019. He finished the season with 464 yards rushing, the first time since 1968 a Steelers running back led the team with fewer than 500 yards rushing.
“James had an unfortunate season and what we tried to emphasize to James was, this was this year; the previous year you were one of the best in the league,” general manager Kevin Colbert said last week at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. “We know you are still a young ascending player and we want you to get back to where you were in 2018.”
But can the Steelers afford to take that chance, especially because Conner’s rookie contract expires after the 2020 season? Benny Snell Jr., last year’s fourth-round pick, showed he can be a very good complementary back, if not a very capable fill-in as a starter. He rushed for 426 yards on 108 carries and two touchdowns as a rookie.
And Jaylen Samuels is a nice third-down back who catches the ball with the ease of a wide receiver. But the Steelers do not look at them as players around whom they can build a top-tier running attack. The Steelers had just one run of 40-plus yards in 2019 — only three teams had none — and that was by Trey Edmunds, who was largely a special-teams performer before injuries set in.
If Conner struggles with injuries again, as has been his two-year history, the Steelers will not, in all likelihood, offer him a second contract to be their starter going forward. It would not be a wise investment. Granted, that could all change if Conner — fingers crossed — can stay healthy and regain his 2018 form. But that might be an Evel Knievelsized leap of faith.
“Injuries happen,” Colbert said. “They were acute injuries that were not avoidable. He has to work through it and we are confident in James because we know what he did in ’18 and are hopeful he can do that again in 2020. But competition from a Benny Snell and a Jaylen Samuels should help that process.”
The Steelers could find one of the top running backs in the draft available, even in the second round when they finally get their turn to pick.
The best fit might be Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor, a big back (5 feet 10, 226 pounds) who ran the fastest 40-time (4.39) among the running backs and tied for seventh fastest among all players at the combine. But NFL teams are worried about Taylor’s workload with the Badgers, where he averaged 308 carries a season for three consecutive years.
Speed will be a big factor for the Steelers, who don’t have a whole lot of it in their backfield. That’s one of the reasons they signed Kerrith Whyte late in the season and gave him an average of seven snaps in the six games he played, even though he was the No. 5 running back.
That could lead them to Florida State’s Cam Akers, who was one of the backs to shine at the combine. Akers had good measurements (5-10, 217) — unlike smallish backs such as J.K. Dobbins and Clyde Edwards-Helaire — and showed his speed when he ran an official 4.47 in the 40.
Another to improve his draft stock is Joshua Kelley of
UCLA (5-11, 212), who ran a 4.49 and tested well in every category, including the 225pound bench press (23 reps).
It’s difficult to predict how the first round will unfold. Will it follow the lead of the 2018 draft, when three running backs were selected in the first round and five among the top 38; or last year when one running back (Josh Jacobs) went in the first round and just two among the top 43 picks?
At a time when the No. 1 seeds in each conference and two other playoff participants were among the top four rushing teams in the league in 2019, it would only make sense to see a renewed emphasis on the running back position. But in the past 10 years, only 14 running backs have been drafted in the first round. Half of those have come in the past four years.
The previous time the Steelers drafted a running back in the second round was Bell in 2013. No running back went in the first round that year and Bell was the second selected overall, at No. 48, behind Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati).
They are in a similar spot again this year. Maybe it’s time to take that leap of faith again.