Hurricane Lee’s strength shifts down
Hurricane Lee barreled into Category 5 major storm status late Thursday growing even stronger Friday morning leading to projections it would intensify into one of the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic. Conditions shifted, though, and it ended up dropping back down to Category 4, yet still with 150 mph winds on Friday.
As of 5 p.m., the National Hurricane Center said Lee continued to drop from its high of 165 mph sustained winds recorded 12 hours earlier. Its drop to 150 mph sustained winds still had 185 mph gusts. It was located about 500 miles east of the Caribbean’s northern Leeward Islands moving west-northwest at 13 mph. Its hurricane-force winds extend out 35 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend out 150 miles.
Overnight forecasts had the system potentially growing to sustained winds of 180 mph and gusts of 220 mph while over the warm tropics of the Atlantic. The source heat had allowed for its rapid intensification jumping from a sustained wind speed of 80 mph to 160 mph just 12 hours earlier, continuing to grow overnight to 165 mph sustained winds by 5 a.m. Friday.
But now forecasters expect it to remain a Category 4 hurricane, dropping down to 140-145 mph sustained winds through Tuesday morning before it dials back on its intensity by midweek while remaining in the Atlantic.
“Some fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next few days, however Lee is expected to remain a powerful major hurricane through early next week,” forecaster said.
The earlier projections would have made it one of only eight recorded storms to hit 180 mph with only five hitting 185 or higher. The most powerful recorded wind speeds were from 1980’s Hurricane Allen that hit 190 mph sustained winds. The strongest most recent storm was 2019’s deadly Hurricane Dorian that had 185 mph winds while 2017’s Hurricane Irma hit 180 mph.
Its forecast track has remained roughly the same since the hurricane formed Wednesday, heading in a fairly straight line north of the northern Leeward Islands.
Beyond that, long-range computer forecast models predict the storm will be sucked up north and not be a threat for a U.S. landfall, although the NHC is not prepared to waive off concerns.
“It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic,” the NHC said.
The swells from this compact, powerful storm were expected to hit portions of the Caribbean’s Lesser Antilles on Friday, then spread out to threaten the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend.
The NHC said it was producing 50-foot waves at its center.
Swells could produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions on the U.S. East Coast including Florida by Sunday.
Lee became the 12th named storm this week followed by the 13th, Tropical Storm Margot, which formed Thursday.
As of 5 p.m. Margot was located about 705 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands moving west-northwest at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 35 miles. “This motion is expected to continue the next day or so, followed by a decrease in forward motion and a turn northwestward, then northward early next week,” forecasters said. “Some gradual strengthening is forecast the next several days, with Margot forecast to become a hurricane early next week.”
It is no threat to land. Since Aug. 20, the tropics have churned out nine named storms including Hurricane Idalia that struck Florida’s Gulf Coast as a major Category 3 hurricane last week and moved across Georgia and the Carolinas.
If Margot grows into a hurricane it would become the season’s fifth, three of which have become major hurricanes: Franklin, Idalia and Lee.
Hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach with Colorado State University said when his institution forecast their seasonal outlook, “it would be a battle between a moderate/strong El Niño (detrimental for Atlantic hurricanes) and a record warm Atlantic (favorable for Atlantic hurricanes). I think it’s safe to say that the warm Atlantic won.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s most recent hurricane forecast updated in August increased its prediction for an above-average season expecting 14-21 named storms, of which 6-11 could become hurricanes and 2-5 could become major hurricanes.
The season officially runs from June 1-Nov. 30.