Cold-blooded move
Both coming and going, Glasnow epitomizes Rays’ way of operating
ST. PETERSBURG — It is permissible, and maybe even advisable, to mourn this trade.
In many ways, Tyler Glasnow is the complete package. His freakish skills make him a blast to watch, his goofy persona makes him easy to cheer for, and his flashes of brilliance have always kept you hoping and wishing something extraordinary was around the corner. So, yes, this is no ordinary goodbye.
Not to mention, the Rays will likely be a lesser team in 2024, perhaps significantly, now that this deal is finalized.
So scream into your pillow. Punch it, if you must.
Just remember, swapping big-salaried stars for younger, cheaper alternatives is how the Rays contend year after year with a Hyundai-like payroll in baseball’s fastest division. Let’s not forget, a similar deal is precisely how Glasnow (and Austin Meadows and Shane Baz) arrived in Tampa Bay in 2018.
There’s no sense ignoring the economic reality that led to this proposed swap with the Dodgers. Glasnow is due to make $25 million in 2024 and heading toward free agency if he does not agree to an extension with Los Angeles. One way or another, his time in Tampa Bay was coming to an end in the next 10 months.
Now, if the Rays had a strong chance at winning the World Series in 2024, they might have talked themselves into rolling the dice with a one-year, do-ordie season with Glasnow at $25 million.
Except that doesn’t look like a smart bet this morning.
Shane McClanahan is out for the season, Wander Franco’s status remains uncertain and Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen are not due back until late next summer. The Rays may still be a 90-win team in 2024, but their chances of going deep into October are not as good as they were in 2023. Or will be again in 2025.
So, basically, this was a coldblooded statistical calculation. An actuarial, if you will.
Were the Rays better off going for broke with Glasnow and a walking wounded roster in 2024, or did it make more sense to save that money when they were closer to full strength in 2025 and Junior Caminero and Curtis Mead were a year older? Also, there is the not-so-inconsequential trade return from the Dodgers.
Neither Ryan Pepiot nor Jonny Deluca qualify as can’t-miss, high-end commodities, but they are MLB-ready players.
Deluca, 25, is a younger, faster, inexpensive version of Manuel Margot, who will join Glasnow in Los Angeles. Deluca gives the Rays an alternative to Jose Siri in centerfield, and he is capable of playing either corner outfield position.
Pepiot, 26, is a few years older than Taj Bradley but comparable in terms of prospect status. Bradley was Baseball America’s No. 44 prospect in 2023 while Pepiot was No. 55. And while Bradley was inconsistent as a rookie last season (a 5.59 ERA in 104 innings), Pepiot put up strong numbers (a 2.14 ERA in 42 innings) even if his underlying metrics were not quite as impressive.
So did the Rays win this trade? Did they get enough in return for Glasnow?
Obviously, that’s impossible to say now. It depends a lot on how good Pepiot turns out to be. It also depends on how healthy the oft-injured Glasnow is in 2024. The only thing we know for certain is that there is a logical argument for the trade, even if you’re not impressed with the return. And even if it feels like a punch in the gut to see another popular Tampa Bay player leave town in what could be the prime of his career.
In some ways, that’s the most infuriating thing about the trade. It’s not what Glasnow has done, but what he has yet to do. There is a small group of starting pitchers in MLB history who have reached their 30th birthday with numbers comparable to Glasnow when it comes to strikeout rates, WHIP and opponents’ OPS. We’re talking guys like Sandy Koufax, Pedro Martinez, Tom Seaver and Clayton Kershaw. But here’s the rub:
Those guys all had roughly 160 wins at a comparable age.
Glasnow has 30 big-league wins.
The promise and potential of Glasnow has always been better than the reality. That doesn’t mean he wasn’t occasionally a beast when he was on the mound, but there were too many injuries, too many five-inning outings, too many struggles with command.
Of course, we said similar things about Blake Snell a few years ago and he just won another Cy Young Award. Not to mention, the Rays have almost nothing to show for the swap that sent Snell to San Diego.
The bottom line is these deals are necessary for a team with the revenue limitations of the Rays. Even if the trade stinks today. Or looks brilliant tomorrow.