Disappointing NL East an Amazin’ advantage
HAIL THE NL East, where all the teams were trying to — at minimum — make the playoffs and even the one that wasn’t putting its money where its October dreams were was making history when the Marlins hired Kim Ng as the first female GM in MLB history.
The forecast was for high-end play and a heated division race.
Nearly a month into the season, the division is bunched, but the play is … meh.
The weekend ended with just one NL East team over .500 and the 9-8 Mets had the NL’s fourth-worst run differential at minus-11. Third was the Braves (-12), second the Phillies (-15) and the worst was the Nationals (-24). Only the Marlins at plus-1 had an NL East positive and at 9-12 were tied with the Braves (9-12) and Nationals (8-11) for last in the division.
While the NL East has underperformed, the Dodgers and Padres spent the past two weekends honoring offseason projections. The teams played seven tight, tense April games worthy of October. The pitching, hitting, athleticism and competitiveness were straight from a Rob Manfred fever dream of what baseball could be.
The NL goes through California since even the Giants are in a golden state, nestled between the Dodgers and Padres in the West with the league’s second-best record (14-8). San Francisco has a revelatory 10 games versus the Padres and Dodgers in a 22-game stretch beginning Thursday. But the Giants’ strong start serves as a reminder that, for example, both wild cards can come out of the NL West. Unlike the expanded 2020 playoffs, the only sure way in this year is a division title.
The first month should encourage the Mets that they can (and maybe should) win the NL East. Through the weekend, the Mets were given a 75.3 percent chance to take the NL East (Fangraphs) — the Braves were next at 16.4. Of course a predictive model is based on what data is fed into it. Baseball Reference’s tool, for example, had the Mets with the third-best shot at 18.5 percent. The Braves were at 53.8 and the Nationals at 44.5 percent.
If you like where the Mets are after a month it is because Jacob deGrom is the ace of the sport, Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker are performing well, David Peterson is competent and Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard are trending toward a return. The Nationals rotation has not been the same since its main men did overtime to help win the 2019 title.
Stephen Strasburg is hurt again and Patrick Corbin has a 5.82 ERA spanning the last two seasons. The Phillies’ front three of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Zack Elfin is excellent, but they have one of the majors’ worst rotation back ends.
Yes, the Mets are bad defensively, but have you seen the Nationals and, particularly, the Phillies? The Mets at least can plug Albert Almora in center and Luis Guillorme at third late in games and approach average — or better.
Jeff McNeil and Dom Smith have struggled early and the Mets are in a now familiar clutch malaise — their .189 batting average with runners in scoring position was worst in the majors.
But the Braves were at .208 and their overall team batting average was .215.
Atlanta is the divisional bellwether, having won it three straight years. But the Braves are the Yankees of the NL East so far and not just because of the same 9-12 record through 21 games. They have knocked, knocked, knocked on breaking through to a World Series in recent seasons without success. Their strength this season was supposed to be a long lineup, like the Yanks. But so far, so bad.
The controversy of the weekend was that Arizona’s Madison Bumgarner allowed no hits in a seven-inning nightcap of a doubleheader, but was not credited with a no-hitter. The rules state a pitcher must complete a game of at least nine innings to gain such distinction. But that overshadowed that the Braves were the opponent and mustered one hit and no runs over 14 innings of two games.
Ronald Acuna Jr. has been brilliant but the rest of the lineup, even NL MVP Freddie Freeman, has been dormant. Most disturbing is that after leading the NL in homers (18) and RBIs (56) in the shortened season and signing a four-year, $65 million pact, Marcell Ozuna had a .184 average, .527 OPS and one extra-base hit through 21 games.
Like the Yankees with Corey Kluber, the Braves took an $11 million pipe dream on Drew Smyly based on five strong starts for the Giants down the stretch last year and despite a history of teasing talent mixed with injury and ineffectiveness. In 2021, Smyly already has been hurt plus bad in three starts (7.20 ERA). Max Fried, a revelation last year, had an 11.45 ERA in three starts before joining the injured list (hamstring). He is due back soon, but there is no timetable for 2019 ace Mike Soroka, who missed almost all of 2020 after rupturing his Achilles and now has a shoulder issue.
Atlanta’s pedigree, culture and depth still looms as the greatest challenge to the Mets ascending to atop the division. But four weeks are providing indicators that the NL East might not be what we expected and the Braves might be down a grade.
The door has opened further for the Mets.