Trust your gut, even if it’s a little trendy

BECAUSE a bracket isn’t enough action. Nevada (-2) over Florida: After opening with a 24-1 record, Nevada lost almost all of its early-season Final Four backers by dropping three of its final eight games in the underwhelming Mountain West Conference. However, the veteran group has been waiting for this time of year after falling two points short of last year’s Elite Eight, and the Gators offense simply can’t keep pace.

New Mexico State (+6½) over Auburn: The Tigers are riding even higher after winning the SEC Tournament — capped with a blowout of Tennessee — but the Aggies are about to bring the overconfident bunch back to down to earth. New Mexico State already nearly upset the Jayhawks in Lawrence, Kan., and is a legitimate threat to reach the second week.

Murray State (+4½) over Marquette: I’m usually leery of taking such a trendy first-round upset pick, but the Racers have won 11 straight, nearly knocked off a tougher 5-seed (Auburn) on the road, and face a slumping squad, which has lost five of its past six games. Soon-tobe top-three pick Ja Morant averaged 32.5 points in the Ohio Valley Tournament and 31.5 points against high-major teams this season, and will be at his best in this long-awaited moment. Big East Player of the Year Markus Howard has shot 28.8 percent from the field over the past four games and has repeatedly proven how easily he can be taken out of rhythm.

Purdue (-12½) over Old Dominion: The Boilermakers went 16-4 in the Big Ten and won a share of the league title, with one of the country’s best players (Carsen Edwards) and the fifth-most efficient offense in the nation. The defense which carried the Monarchs through Conference USA won’t do much to slow down a team that has already faced 11 defenses ranked better, including four of the nation’s top nine.

Vermont (+10½) over Florida State: The Seminoles reached the Elite Eight last season and became a popular Final Four pick by knocking off Virginia and reaching the ACC title game, but the Catamounts have the size, tempo, depth, defense and perimeter shooting to put a serious scare into the 4-seed.

Michigan State (-18½) over Bradley: This is not going to help the Braves’ brand. This season: 15-14-1 2011-18 record: 226-189-8