best way to win big in Irish sweepstakes

Don’t bet Notre Dame on the futures board to win the football national championship!

VSiN isn’t suggesting the Fighting Irish don’t have a chance to lift the trophy in January. Even without star quarterback Ian Book on Saturday versus Florida State (NBC, 7:30 p.m.), Notre Dame should close around a 16to 17-point favorite over the Seminoles. The Irish will then be favored (but not sure things) to beat Syracuse at Yankee Stadium a week from Saturday, and then over disappointing USC in Los Angeles in their season finale. That would put Notre Dame in the final four.

Our point is that current futures boards are offering horrible prices on Notre Dame to win it all. William Hill in New Jersey was showing 8/1 late this week. Odds commonly range from 7/1 to 10/1 at Las Vegas shops.

Believe it or not, Notre Dame will likely be about 8/1 just to beat Alabama in a heads-up meeting in the final four. The price in that one game could be the same as the current odds to string together victories.

Market projections suggest Notre Dame would be around a 17- to 20-point underdog versus Alabama. We know the Crimson Tide was -14¹/2 over LSU in Baton Rouge. That equates to about 17¹/2 to 18 on a neutral field. Respected ratings show LSU as slightly superior to Notre Dame in market perception.

Underdogs in that range are usually around +800 on the money line. You can confirm that by cross-referencing point spreads and money lines on the big Saturday college football schedule.

Of course, to claim the national championship, Notre Dame must win two playoff games. Currently, the other most likely foe would be Clemson. Notre Dame likely would be around +10 or +11 versus the Tigers. That’s going to be in the neighborhood of +300 on the money line.

Using an online “parlay calculator” (easy to find at VSiN.com or vegasinsider.com), a “rolling parlay” approach through those two opponents at +800 and +300 would pay 34/1 — a big difference from 8/1!

Why bet $100 to win $800 when you can start with $100 and end with more than $3,000 for the same overall prediction? Notre Dame’s either going to fail (you lose $100), or go all the way.

VSiN isn’t taking a position on which team is going to win. Our goal is to make sure you’re using the correct approach when betting. If you’re a Notre Dame fan who wants to support the team, or a handicapper who thinks the Irish are sleepers, bet smart!

Your Irish title betting strategy: Wait to make sure they qualify for the playoffs. Bet them on the money line to win the semifinal. Re-invest the full return on the money line to win the final.

If they qualify, the Irish are extremely likely to enter the brackets as the worst team in market perceptions. Oddsmakers are apparently hoping bettors haven’t thought through what that means on the futures board.

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