BETTER FLY EFFECT
Home-dog Eagles will soar past Vikes
EAGLES (+3) over Vikings (Under 38½): Off a stellar regular season, Minnesota is now a road favorite to reach its fifth Super Bowl, in the effort to gain a measure of redemption after dropping its initial four appearances in the NFL’s ultimate game in the 1970s.
Despite earning j ustif i ed respect for his meaningful role in resurrecting this franchise’s on-field fortunes, coach Mike Zimmer was on the losing side as Dallas’ defensive coordinator in two Cowboys postseason disappointments, came up short in four playoff losses as defensive coordinator under Marvin Lewis with Cincinnati — and as head man, failed to sustain a 9-0 lead against the Seahawks in the Vikings’ wild-card game which ended their 2015 season.
Last weekend’s miracle f inish against the Saints must have come as a considerable relief to Zimmer, the broad roster and the Vikings faithful, though those involved have much to prove in big games. For that matter, so do the modern Eagles, who have long endured the ill fortune to find themselves in the same division as the Giants, Cowboys and Redskins — all of whom have won multiple Super titles since the Eagles’ last NFL championship, captured in 1960 behind Norm Van Brocklin and coach Buck Shaw, that squad being the only one to best Vince Lombardi in an NFL postseason.
Running backs Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount are more than sufficient to provide a measure of cover for Philadelphia stand-in QB Nick Foles. Do the Eagles miss Carson Wentz? Like oxygen, but like the modern Vikings, the Falcons have fallen prey to frittering away meaningful postseason in-game advantages, and the Eagles displayed an admirable ability to finish when they thrust past Atlanta.
The Vikings don’t impress as a trustworthy power road favorite under the circumstances. Given Minnesota’s difficult role, we look to Philly as the side less likely to fall prey to the fatal, irretrievable late-stages mistake, despite Vikings offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur’s intimate knowledge of the Eagles’ offensive personnel from his recent past as Philly OC. Case Keenum has come a long away in a short time, but they don’t pay off on piecework. Eagles, 17-13
PATRIOTS (-7¹/₂) over Jaguars (Over 46 ½): There’s a great temptation to lean to the Jaguars here. Recent history has reflected a marked results bias in favor of taking more than a touchdown in conference-championship matchups.
But it’s tough to blame the mass- es on the Pats, given the clockwork-like payouts this investment strategy has generated of late. But many a wise guy is intrigued by the Jags, given their defensive improvement — and the presence of wise head (and ex-Giants coach) Tom Coughlin, Jacksonville’s executive VP of football operations, who engineered a pair of marked big-dog upsets of these Patriots in the 2007 and 2011 Super Bowls. As the Giants (and the Ravens) have demonstrated, the optimal strategic path to beating the Pats is to engineer an up-the-gut pass rush which gets in Brady’s face and takes the body down.
Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis has unearthed another stat read which could ease the path of Brady and Co. This season, offenses who deployed no more than two wide receivers in offensive sets completed 55 percent of their passes against the Jaguars, gained 9.6 yards per pass attempt, and averaged a 99.0 passer rating. With three or more wideouts on the field, attack unit efficiency against Jacksonville regressed to 39 percent, an average 5-yards per attempt and an overall passer rating of 59! It would insult the combined intelligence of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady to believe they’re not aware of this wrinkle.
Oddly, there was knee-jerk fanbased derision hurled at Sharp’s presentation of these statistical features on Twitter, but value on the underdog side has been lessened by market reaction to Brady’s banged-up right (throwing) hand incurred in practice earlier this week. Photos revealed an uglylooking thumb, and only Brady knows how it might affect his game, though X-rays were negative, and we anticipate a representative performance.
Don’t be fooled by the Steelers’ comeback against the Jags last week. Once Jacksonville went up 28-7, the pace was in their hands, and the game wound up only superficially close. This underdog might compete if Blake Bortles avoids mistakes, though presuming Brady’s sound, Jacksonville will have work to do. Patriots, 30-20
Division round: Sides: 2-1-1; Eagles (W), Patriots (W), Steelers ( L), Vikings ( T). Over/ Unders: 3-1
Postseason: Sides: 4- 3- 1 . Over/Unders: 7-1