‘Total war’ to retake stronghold

A military operation to take Raqqa, Syria, the ISIS capital, would require as many as 50,000 troops and involve complex political negotiations to coordinate a “war of a hundred armies,” according to former military commanders.

The jihadists have begun building defensive bunkers and tunnels around their stronghold in northern Syria, as US-backed Kurdish and Arab rebel forces gather 20 miles to the north.

Attention has focused on the city, described by British Prime Minister David Cameron as “the snake’s head,” after the UN Security Council called on world powers to “eradicate” ISIS havens in Syria and Iraq.

A force of about 25,000 would be required to take the city itself, backed by tanks, artillery and aircraft, said Brigadier Ben Barry, head of the land warfare program at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

A former British general, who asked to remain anonymous, said the same number again would likely be required to guard supply lines and ferry logistics to the fighting force from Turkey, in a “dangerous and difficult environment.”

He said that the operation would require “overall Arab ownership of the enterprise” as well as an undertaking by the international community to provide unlimited military and financial support.

“It would need UN cover but just as important would be to wind up the Arab League — a serially incompetent organization — to take longterm command.”

Turkish and Jordanian forces are seen as the most capable Sunni Muslim ground troops available in the region — but the Turks might face Kurdish opposition, while Jordan’s army is relatively small.

Military leaders look to the siege of Fallujah, near Baghdad, as a possible model for the Raqqa operation. Both are cities of about 350,000 people — but there would be no comparison between the capabilities of the US Marines that took Fallujah and the forces likely to be ranged against Raqqa.

In 2004 the US deployed 10,500 Marines backed by artillery, tanks and hundreds of aircraft and helicopters, with 3,000 Iraqi and British forces blocking all escape routes. The Marines took the city block by block, suffering 95 deaths but killing 1,500 insurgents and capturing 1,500 more.

But while Fallujah’s population had already fled the city, ISIS is attempting to prevent civilians from leaving Raqqa.

Some Russian analysts have advocated a brutal “scorched earth” approach. In Israel, Shabtai Shavit, a former head of Mossad, called for Raqqa to be “wiped off the map, like Dresden.” Times of London