BELIEVE-A-BILL
IN THEIR first three games. the Giants’ defense has faced mainly pocket passers in Tony Romo, Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins. Sunday in Orchard Park, they’ll encounter a totally different force in Tyrod Taylor.
Signed by the Bills as a free agent after four years of holding Joe Flacco’s clipboard in Baltimore, Taylor quickly was handed the starting job by Rex Ryan. And, right out of the gate, he’s run with it, taking off 17 times for 96 yards and a touchdown. Even more impressively, he has thrown it, completing almost 75 percent on 58of78 for 714 yards and seven touchdown against three interceptions.
The Bills also have an emerging beast of a runner in Florida State rookie Karlos Williams, who is averaging 7.8 yards per carry. And Ryan’s defense is a tough, lively bunch. Don’t worry about the 400 yards per game allowed — they played the Patriots and Colts, and had a huge lead in Miami.
Jets (1 ¹/₂) over DOLPHINS (in London): Jets learned a lesson about desperate teams last week against the Eagles, and the Dolphins will be in a similar mood after their 4114 home drubbing by the Bills. Would feel better if Eric Decker were definitely returning, but it help to have Chris Ivory back.
COLTS (9) over Jaguars: NFL Films captured Jags coach Gus Bradley kissing so much of Bill Belichick’s butt in pregame last week, it was almost pornographic. This is a brutal backtoback road spot against a Colts team that needs a breakout blowout.
Texans (+6¹/₂) over FALCONS: Atlanta is the first team in NFL history to start 30 after trailing in the fourth quarter of all three games. That’s great for the Falcons’ playoff aspirations, but a warning sign at this level of favoritism.
BUCCANEERS (+3) over Panthers: This is the time of the season when you look at the surprise undefeated teams, like the Panthers (and Falcons, for that matter), and start going against them. Jameis Winston is off to a rocky start but is beginning to find the range with talented WR Mike Evans. Raiders (3) over BEARS: Jay Cutler is likely out again, and the Bears symbolically gave up on the season when they sent Jared Allen to Carolina. We’d prefer to keep hanging with Mr. Cooper and Mr. Carr.
Eagles (3) over REDSKINS: Washington has significantly better yardage stats on both sides of the ball, but the thought here is that the Eagles survived their crisis moment and are ready to roll now. Sam Bradford looked more viable last week on the road against a good Jets’ defense.
BENGALS (4) over Chiefs: Have backed KC the last two weeks vs. the Broncos and Packers, and paid the price. This is a tough road backtoback, traveling again after a Monday nighter at Lambeau. Not messin’ with Andy Dalton in the Jungle.
CHARGERS (7 ¹/₂) over Browns: Chargers have big yardage edges both offensively and defensively, and unlike the EaglesRedskins numbers, these seem more reliable.
Packers (8) over 49ERS: Packers travel after a Monday night win and are laying a big number. That combo is typically a betting red flag. But they have the far better team here, and come in with triple revenge, having lost two regularseason games and one playoff game to Colin Kaepernick.
BRONCOS (6 ¹/₂) over Vikings: Minnesota is coming off two solid home wins, but this is a really tough spot for Teddy Bridgewater, in loud Denver against the NFL’s No. 1 yardage defense thus far.
CARDINALS (7) over Rams: Surprised the number is this low, with Carson Palmer on winning streaks of nine in a row and 16 of 18. He’s covered the spread in most of those, as well.
Cowboys (+4¹/₂) over SAINTS: Drew Brees should be back, but that doesn’t erase the Saints’ sixgame home losing streak. That’s also a lot of points to be giving a Cowboys team that’s 90 outright on the road in the last two regular seasons. Brandon Weeden completed 29 of 33 last week, so the Cowboys can at least function without Tony Romo.
MONDAY NIGHT
SEAHAWKS (10) over Lions: Not crazy about giving this many points, but what’s the alternative — taking another winless team in that Seattle hornets nest? That worked out great last week with the Bears.
BEST BETS: Cardinals, Bengals, Cowboys LAST WEEK: 88 overall, 30 Best Bets LOCK OF THE WEEK: Cardinals (Locks 20 in 2015)
THURSDAY NIGHT: Ravens (W)