Haudricourt: How the Brewers’ rotation defied low expectations,
What would your expectations have been for the Milwaukee Brewers’ starting rotation during the 2018 season if you had this information at the outset:
Jimmy Nelson would not throw a pitch in a major-league game. Nelson, who had major shoulder surgery a year ago, hoped to recover in time to see action at some point during the season but needed more time to recover from a significant injury.
Zach Davies would miss more than half the season with shoulder and back injuries. Although run support was a significant factor, Davies was one of the top winners (17-9) in the National League last season and was a constant in the Brewers’ rotation, making 33 starts.
After having a spot in the rotation won in spring camp, veteran lefty Wade Miley suffered a groin injury just before the season’s start, then later strained an oblique and missed three months. Yes, he has been big down the stretch but what if he were healthy enough to take regular turns?
Lefty Brent Suter would blow out his elbow in late July and undergo Tommy John surgery, sidelining him for the rest of the season, not to mention most of 2019. Suter was the Swiss army knife of the Brewers’ pitching staff, capable of transitioning from starting to relieving, or vice versa, at a moment’s notice.
Chase Anderson would not come close to approaching his career year of 2017 (12-4, 2.74 in 25 starts). In particular, he has had trouble keeping the ball in the park, surrendering 29 home runs, tied for most in the NL.
Rookie Freddy Peralta would be needed to make 14 starts to get the Brewers to September in contending position. Never mind that Peralta began the season at age 21 and had never pitched above the Class AA level until this year.
Need I go on?
Suffice it to say the rotation has had challenges to overcome. And that includes the constant harping from the outside world that Brewers management committed malfeasance by not acquiring a “name” starting pitcher. That finally changed on Aug. 31 when they traded for Washington lefty Gio Gonzalez, though he was having a rough go of it with the Nationals.
When the pitching staff began to fray in August, those cries from the outside grew even louder. The Brewers’ 5.33 team ERA was the worst in the league, making it slightly remarkable that the team tread water with a 13-13 record.
But, for various reasons, the staff has found its second wind in September. Entering Saturday, the Brewers’ team ERA was 2.80 over the first 12 games of the month, easily the best in the NL. Not coincidentally, they went 9-3 over that stretch, applying pressure on the firstplace Cubs in the division.
Add it all together and the Brewers’ pitching was ranked seventh in the league Saturday with a 3.85 team ERA. That figure included a 3.94 ERA for the starters and 3.71 ERA for the relief corps.
What got the pitching turned around?
“There are going to be ebbs and flows throughout the season,” general manager David Stearns said. “We try to evaluate the entire body of work and not get too reactive to a two- or three-week stretch. That’s true with the ups and with the downs as well. For the majority of the season, our pitching, both starting and bullpen, has been pretty strong.
“We had a stretch in August where we scuffled. That’s the way baseball works. It’s the same with offense and defense. There are points when you struggle. But this is a marathon; it’s really tough to be perfect the entire way. Our guys have done a very good job of maintaining focus, whether they’re going through ups and downs.
“That period in August was probably our most challenging of the season and we still came out of it in pretty good shape. That’s generally what competitive teams do. They’re able to fight through some of the tougher stretches and stick with it.”
There were specific developments that helped get the pitching headed in the right direction. Davies returned from an extended minor-league rehab assignment and filled the rotation spot previously held by Peralta, who held his own with a 6-4 record and 4.40 ERA, with 91 strikeouts in 732⁄3 innings.
Gonzalez took over the spot occupied by Junior Guerra, who staggered through August (0-2, 7.03 in five starts). Guerra filled a void effectively throughout the first half (6-6, 3.23 in 18 starts) but ran out of steam (6.93 after the allstar break) and was no longer keeping the team in games.
A well-used bullpen backing up that rotation was stretched thin at times but was reinforced by September call- ups, allowing manager Craig Counsell to use his high-leverage relievers in game situations only. Another huge factor was the return to form of former closer Corey Knebel after a 10-day “reset” in the minors.
Jhoulys Chacín, signed to a two-year, $15.5 million free- agent deal over the offseason, has been the rock of the rotation, to the point that Counsell and pitching coach Derek Johnson recently adjusted the alignment to set up Chacín for a wild-card playoff game if it comes down to that. The wily right-hander is 14-7 with a 3.54 ERA in 31 outings, the only starter not to miss a turn.
“He has exceptional feel (for pitching),” Johnson said. “He reads swings very well, and he reads situations pretty well, too. He has an understanding of when to attack and when to retreat a little bit.
“It’s been fun to watch him. He’s got a few tricks in his bag out there. There’s a lot of cat and mouse that goes on in games, and it’s kind of fun to plan for and run with.”
Once Miley was healthy enough to start taking regular turns, the rotation took a big step forward. After a couple of very rough seasons in Baltimore, he has far exceeded expectations, going 4- 2 with a 2.23 ERA through his first 13 outings, allowing only 57 hits and 25 walks over 682⁄3 innings.
Given more rest between starts in recent weeks, Anderson has fared better as well. He posted a 1.93 ERA over his first three September starts after compiling a 5.61 ERA in five outings in August.
“I think this staff has proven that it’s capable of competing every single day,” Stearns said. “We’ve had some really good stretches, like we’ve had recently, where they’ve carried the team. And we’ve had stretches where we’ve needed our offense to step up, and they’ve done that as well. When you’re going well, all areas of the team are contributing.”
So, the Brewers will look for two more solid weeks from their “no-name” rotation, then hopefully an extended run into October. Stearns and Co. always have valued their pitching more than the outside world, and for good reason, as it turned out.
“You can only hope that guys step up, and they did,” Johnson said of the obstacles his pitching staff has overcome. “That’s the simplest way to put it. I’m extremely proud of the job they’ve done.
“You have to have depth to do that. So, you point upstairs to the job that David and (assistant) Matt Arnold have done in going out and getting guys to create more depth. We had others come up through the ranks to help out.
“Now, we’ve added Gonzalez. So, we have some options, and with the days off (every Thursday in September), you feel you can match up against teams a little better. And you can give guys a breather, too, if they need it .”