Futurist shares 6 trends that could shape 2017
When I need to understand historical events, I contact a historian. Conversely, when I need to understand the trends that will shape the future, I turn to a futurist.
Fortunately, Milwaukee is home to at least one futurist, generally defined as a person who studies the future and makes predictions about it based on current trends.
Milwaukee businessman Bob Chernow is the former vice chairman of the World Future Society, a Chicago-based nonprofit organization that brings together scientists and others interested in identifying and understanding the trends that are shaping the future.
Chernow is not a psychic. He doesn’t have a crystal ball. But he is a lifelong learner who is knowledgeable and conversant on a broad range of topics. (Translation: He’s a smart guy.)
So, as we embark on 2017, I asked Chernow to provide us with six important trends that business leaders should monitor in the new year. Here we go:
1. Companies will face an acute labor shortage. During the 2008 financial collapse, when unemployment was rising, Chernow made the bold prediction that we were heading for a shortage of qualified workers. “Well, we are here, with a combination of demographics like baby boomer retirements and the mismatch between skills needed and those available. This trend was easy to see, but hard to believe in light of the high unemployment we had. It was something like the wife who finds her husband in bed with another, and the husband says, ‘Who are you going to believe? Me or your own lying eyes?’” Chernow says one possible solution would be to provide transportation for workers living in the inner city to jobs in the suburbs.
2. Management will need to adjust to the millennial workforce. “This will include praise, advanced education and stimulating jobs for short attention spans. The key is retention. Questions regarding the way our workforce is made up by sex, race, region or place of origin are now compelling parts of our worlds.”
3. Advanced robotics will change the way we work. “Mechanical robots have been with us for a while, but robots are now being trained — if that is the right word — to think and sense and learn. But a robot that can sense, feel, smell, and see can replace or augment day care for the elderly or ill to fill a need caused by the shortage of qualified nurses. Look for these trained robots to improve your own productivity with artificial intelligence. Driverless cars and trucks could supplement workers.”
4. Microelectromechanical systems will become ubiquitous. “MEMS will be making a surge in use over the next few years. MEMS are miniature integrated mechanics such as levers, springs, vibrating structures and deformable membranes and electrical parts such as capacitors, inductors and resistors. Airbags, motion
detectors in smartphones, blood pressure measurements in I.V. lines and catheters are examples. The internet of things is part of this demand.”
6. Energy prices will continue to decline. “Oil can be exported, and fracking has made the U.S. an exporter. If environmental regulation is reduced, and more drilling is permitted in the U.S., then the price of oil will continue to decline, in my opinion. In addition, alternatives to natural gas and oil have increased. Wal-Mart, for example, is one of the country’s largest users of solar power, not something one would have thought.”
7. Global trade rules could be in flux with the Trump administration. “The primary reason for the loss of jobs that has led to discontent is the replacement of labor through improved productivity, not the export of jobs to China and Mexico. It is just hard to blame yourself or retrain and easier to use job transfers as a scapegoat. What will new trade barriers mean? Higher costs that will be passed on to the consumer? Lower exports to other countries? The unknowns will affect business decisions.”
Happy New Year!