Dolphins face hurdles to make 2021 ‘our year’

Less than 24 hours after the Dolphins’ 2020 campaign ended in infamy, pass rusher Emmanuel Ogbah laid down amarker for the season to come:

“2021 is our year.” It certainly might be. But it will take considerable work.

If the first 15 games were largely an illustration of just how far the Dolphins had come in the past year, the 56-26 drubbing at the hands of the Bills Sunday reminded everyone how far they still have to go.

“That was probably one of the most embarrassing losses of my career,” Ogbah added Monday. “It definitely left a sour taste in my mouth.”

The four-touchdown rout reminded Dolphins safety Eric Rowe of the team’s early 2019 beatdowns. And when asked if the Dolphins believe they are close to competing for championships, or if the Bills proved they still had much to improve, he replied:

“A little bit of both. It did expose things ... that we need to work on to make that jump next year. But looking from last year to this season, it is a huge jump. We’re planning to take this momentum [into] next year, take that next step where we can compete with playoff contending teams.”

While the Dolphins went 10-6 and were the first team left out of the playoffs, they only beat one of the 14 teams still playing.

Still, credit Chris Grier, Brian Flores and the Dolphins organization for the quantum leap forward they took from 2019. They went from five wins to missing out on the postseason by a single game.

And with four picks in the top 50, a potential for $45 million in cap space plus a full offseason for the youngest team in the NFL, there’s a real chance the Dolphins are a sleeper pick to go deep in the AFC playoffs.

However, a deeper dive into the data suggests that the Dolphins could also regress next year, particularly if they are unable to force turnovers at the clip they did in 2020 (when they lead the league with 29 takeaways and 18 interceptions).

Of the 33 teams (including ties) to rank in the top 5 in turnovers from 2014-19, just seven were in the top 5 the following year. Those teams are, by and large, historically among the top defenses in the league: Chiefs, Cardinals, Ravens, Rams, Patriots, Steelers, Buccaneers.

The Dolphins used those takeaways to mask a lot of deficiencies. But to complete what Flores and Grier began building two years ago, they are going to need to be more consistent and efficient on a down-in, down-out basis.

While the Dolphins had the 15th and sixth-best scoring offense and defense this year, both stats were largely a function of turnovers.

A better, forward-looking metric: The Dolphins ranked 23rd in yards per play gained (5.3) and 24th in yards per game allowed (5.9) last year.

Why is that important? Of the teams that qualified for the postseason this year, only three didn’t rank in the top 10 of either category: the Browns, the Seahawks and the Bears. (Seattle won with balance; the NFC West champions were 12th in both yards allowed and gained per play. Chicago got in as a wild-card team at 8-8, which is an anomaly.)

So for the Dolphins to take that next step, they need to improve by about a yard per snap on offense or defense (and if they do both, 2021 truly could be their year).

The fastest, most efficient way to do that is for Tua Tagovailoa to become the quarterback the Dolphins envisioned when they drafted him eight months ago. Statistically, he was one of the 10 worst starters in football as a rookie, ranking 26th in passer rating (87.1) and QBR (52.9) and 30th in yards per pass (6.3).

But center Ted Karras sees a leap coming in the months ahead.

“The biggest jump you take is from your rookie year to Year 2, being more familiar with your guys,” Karras said. “He’s going to have a full offseason. This a repetition sport. He’s going to take a big jump and I’m excited for him.”