NOAA predicts ‘near-normal’ 2019 hurricane season — but that’s still a lot of storms

Hurricane experts are predicting a “near-normal” 2019 Atlantic hurricane season with up to 15 named storms.

But don’t let “near-normal” lull you into a sense of complacency. One word for Floridians: Michael.

On Thursday, forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) unveiled their annual assessment of the season that begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30:

There could be nine to 15 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph.

Of these, four to eight could turn into hurricanes of 74 mph or greater.

And two to four of these storms could strengthen into major Category 3, 4 or 5 storms — like Hurricane Michael last October, which hit Florida’s Panhandle as a Category 5 and devastated the region’s Mexico Beach.

“This looks like a nearnormal season but nine to 15 named storms is a lot,” cautioned Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Two to four major hurricanes is a lot. So even though we are expecting a near-normal season, regardless, that’s a lot of activity.”

There was already a tease to the coming season from the formation of the Subtropical Storm Andrea about 300 miles southwest of Bermuda in the Atlantic on May 20 — the first named storm before the season even started. Andrea fizzled.

COMPETING CLIMATE FACTORS

According to Neil Jacobs, NOAA’s acting administrator, the 2019 season’s outlook reflects competing climate factors.

El Niño is weakening, which isn’t great news given that a strong El Niño can increase wind shear and help suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic, Jacobs said. But, it’s still out there and there are other things NOAA considered when making its forecast.

“The ongoing El Niño is expected to persist and suppress the intensity of the hurricane season. Countering El Niño is the expected combination of warmer-than-average seasurface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and an enhanced west African monsoon — both of which favor increased hurricane

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2019 Atlantic seasonal outlook in August just before the traditional peak of the season, which is August, September and October. June and July storms tend to be less severe, Jacobs said.

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and it does not take any guesses of where, or if, storms might make landfall.

SOUTH FLORIDA WET SEASON

In a prediction focused exclusively on South Florida, regional forecasters said the wet season, which started this month, is shaping up to be hot, with