BREAKING DOWN BALL
Teen could add element of playmaking, but other drawbacks could deter Warriors
Trailing the play, Andrew Bogut had the perfect vantage point. He watched as 19-year- old phenom LaMelo Ball hopped in transition, skipped an around-the-back dribble and shuttled a pass to his teammate, wide open in the corner.
Bogut’s Sydney Kings ended up defeating Ball’s Illawarra Hawks in November, but Bogut, the former Warriors center who played this past season in Australia’s National Basketball League, came away impressed with Ball, one of the top prospects in this year’s NBA draft.
“He has a chance to be a very good pro,” Bogut told the Bay Area News Group in a phone interview. “His playmaking ability, when we played him, he seemed to make the right decisions every time down the floor.”
Despite his age and shortcomings as a scorer and defender, Ball has drawn appreciation from scouts and draft analysts due to his natural playmaking skills
and court vision. ESPN has him ranked the No. 2 overall prospect and both CBS Sports and The Athletic have him atop their boards. Whatever team selects Ball — the younger brother of Pelicans point guard Lonzo Ball and son of brash celebrity dad LaVar Ball — will acquire a player with upside and a strong identity on offense.
Ball’s skills jive with a modern, up-tempo offense. As evidenced in the play Bogut watched, he displays excellent vision and feel in transition. He looks for his teammates and gets them the ball in position to score. Using a comparison often made by scouts, Bogut likens Ball’s game to pass-first floor generals Jason Kidd and Rajon Rondo.
The question is whether or not those types of players can succeed at a high level in today’s NBA. Kidd is a Hall of Famer who helped lead three teams to the NBA Finals between 2002 and 2011, but Ben Simmons— another player who draws comparisons to Kidd — has yet to make it out of the second round of the playoffs the last three seasons with the 76ers (Simmons was injured for this year’s postseason in the Orlando bubble).
Like Kidd and Simmons, Ball — who shot 38.9% overall last season— struggles to score consistently. But unlike Kidd and Simmons, he hasn’t shown the ability to be a lockdown-defender — far from it. Ball is routinely beat in one- onone situations and misses simple rotations.
If he can’t shoot efficiently, a point guard may be able to get awaywith being an elite passer and an elite defender. It’s much harder if he’s only a passer who can’t score or stop the opposing point guard from scoring. That sort of player may only be as good as his teammates.
“He obviously is very talented on the offensive end, just needs to step up defensively, but that’s probably just being a kid that’s never been taught defensive principles at 19 years old, so you got to give him the benefit of the doubt on that,” said Bogut, who won a championship with the Warriors in 2015. “With six months to a year in an NBA system with some good coaching, I think they’ll clean up a lot of those deficiencies.”
That’s the bet. Over the years, the NBL has grown into a high-level basketball league, but it is still not known for its coaching. Before that, Ball played for the Junior Basketball Association — a now-defunct league created by his father — and professionally in Lithuania. Those professional endeavors and his little high school experience have limited Ball’s exposure to the elite coaching he would have found at the college level.
By drafting Ball, a team will hope to harness his natural playmaking skills while coaches help him develop the lacking areas of his game. After all, at 6-foot-7, he has the length to defend if he learns what to do. Though he’s not an explosive athlete, that height should also help him finish at the rim effectively.
With the proper support system, Ball in a few seasons could blossom into an All-Star worthy of a top draft selection.