Los Angeles Times

Busting a couple of myths

Contrary to popular belief, there’s no need to trade Trout for now, and Ohtani deserves rookie of the year.

- BILL SHAIKIN ON BASEBALL bill.shaikin@latimes.com Twitter: @BillShaiki­n

On the day after, the Angels rested, the calm before what could be a franchise-defining storm.

On the day after the news that was heard around the world — Shohei Ohtani needs surgery to reconstruc­t a ligament in his pitching elbow — the Angels did not play. Mike Trout hopped a plane to Philadelph­ia to watch the Eagles open the NFL season.

Ohtani still can hit while his elbow heals. On Wednesday, with an elbow ligament shredded, he hit two home runs. His once-in-acentury ability to hit and pitch at the world’s highest level of baseball led to curiosity and speculatio­n about his future, the future of Trout, and the future of the Angels.

With apologies to educationa­l television, welcome to this twopart episode of “MythBuster­s.” Myth: If Trout won’t sign a contract extension this offseason, the Angels should trade him.

On the surface, this makes sense. Trout has two seasons left on his contract. The closer he gets to free agency, the less another team might offer in return and the more the Angels risk losing Trout for nothing more than a draft choice. With the revival of the Angels’ minor league system, the extra infusion of young talent from a Trout trade could open a window of success from 2021 to 2025.

In reality, there is absolutely no reason for Trout to sign an extension. He has not confronted the Angels with any ultimatum. He likes playing in Anaheim. But he burns to win, and the proof can come only on the field, not in a negotiatin­g session.

In his eight years in Anaheim, this is the Angels’ stubbornly mediocre scorecard: four winning seasons, four losing seasons if they don’t get to .500 this September, zero postseason victories.

The Angels can sit down with Trout and offer him the key to Arte Moreno’s vault. This is not about the money. Trout will get his, from Moreno or another owner. Barring a serious injury, he loses not a penny by waiting.

He would not be turning down a contract. He would be challengin­g the Angels to get better.

They should get better with him, not without him. And, if they do, there is no reason to believe he would not consider signing an extension, perhaps one that would make him an Angel for life.

Trout has $67 million left on his contract. That would be attractive to clubs hesitant to pay perhaps five times as much for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado in free agency this offseason, but much less attractive if the asking price in a trade is the top five prospects in your farm system. And, from the Angels’ perspectiv­e, prospects might never prosper.

When the Boston Red Sox two years ago traded for pitcher Chris Sale, who has started three consecutiv­e All-Star games, they assumed $38 million and sent four prospects to the Chicago White Sox. The headliners: infielder Yoan Moncada, regarded as baseball’s best prospect at the time of the trade and now batting .222 and leading the majors in strikeouts, and pitcher Michael Kopech, who might never throw enough strikes to harness the power of his 100mph fastball and is facing his own decision on Tommy John surgery.

The Red Sox were assured of three seasons of Sale. A team trading for Trout would be assured of two seasons at nearly $30 million more than Sale. Would the Angels get that much better of a package?

The Angels should try to win now with Trout, not later without him. They have a vacancy at catcher and questions at first base, second base, third base and on the pitching staff.

They also have Ohtani to hit next to Trout every day next season. They have some $40 million coming off the player payroll this offseason, plus $6 million more from the contract of manager Mike Scioscia, who is expected to retire. In addition, teams can spend up to $207 million next season without incurring a luxury tax, although that should not be a considerat­ion if the Angels go all in to win with Trout.

The trade market for Trout would not evaporate, even if the Angels fail to win the next two seasons and trade him July 31, 2020. They would get more if they traded him this offseason, or even next offseason, but they would not be able to say they had taken their best shot with him.

In this analytic era, general managers are asset managers, manipulati­ng the disabled lists, the waiver wire and service time, trying to control as many players as possible for as long as possible. But try explaining that to the kids who flocked to Angel Stadium this summer for the best promotion in baseball: a free Trout shirt to every kid, every Sunday.

To hell with asset values. To hell with betraying your fans. You win with the best player in baseball or you go down trying.

Myth: Ohtani was sidelined too long to be considered as American League rookie of the year.

On the surface, this makes sense too. Ohtani dazzled as a pitcher, but his only start since June 6 will be the one in which his elbow blew up last Sunday. He was the Angels’ best pitcher, with a 3.31 earned-run average and 63 strikeouts in 52 innings, but you can’t be the rookie of the year if your year basically lasted two months.

In reality, there should be no question that Ohtani is the rookie of the year. He took a month off from hitting so his ill-fated therapy could take hold in his pitching elbow, but otherwise he has dazzled at bat.

The consensus alternativ­e to Ohtani is Miguel Andujar, the third baseman for the New York Yankees. Andujar is batting .296, with 23 home runs in 494 at-bats. Ohtani is batting .287, with 19 home runs in 251 at-bats.

Ohtani has more home runs than anyone on the San Francisco Giants. He has stolen more bases than Andujar, and he has a sizable advantage in on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

The Yankees’ partisans would say: So what? Percentage­s be damned, Andujar played every day. He has twice as many hits.

The snarky response would be: So what? How many batters has he struck out?

Here is a nonsnarky response: Andujar has 523 plate appearance­s. Ohtani has 284, plus he has pitched to 211 batters. Look at it this way: That totals 495 plate appearance­s for Ohtani, as a batter or facing one. It’s a wash.

Baseball, at its core, is about the batter-pitcher matchup. Ohtani has had just about as many of those matchups this season as Andujar. So Ohtani did not miss too much time after all, because of his two-way abilities.

And those abilities sparked interest in the Angels and in baseball, in Southern California and around the world. In a sport that struggles to market itself and its best players, that is no small considerat­ion. With all due respect to Andujar and his impressive season, does anyone really watch the Yankees to see Andujar, or to see Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, Masahiro Tanaka or the injured Aaron Judge?

From here, Ohtani is the winner, in a runaway.

 ?? Rob Carr Getty Images ?? WHETHER MIKE TROUT chooses to remain with the Angels in the long run is more a matter of the team rising to championsh­ip caliber than it is about a mega-rich contract extension.
Rob Carr Getty Images WHETHER MIKE TROUT chooses to remain with the Angels in the long run is more a matter of the team rising to championsh­ip caliber than it is about a mega-rich contract extension.

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