Big guys will push you around
The Deepstacks Poker Tour, poker’s new, affordable-buy-in tournament series, kicked off its inaugural event in mid-february at Seneca Niagara Casino in Niagara Falls, N.Y. With the final table down to five players, there was a hand that served as a perfect poker lesson.
With blinds at $10,000$20,000 and a $3,000 ante, chip leader William Vogel raised to $45,000 from the cutoff seat. Nick Goetz, who had roughly $450,000 in chips, called the raise with K ♣ J ♠ from the small blind.
The flop came 4 ♣ 6 ♣ 3 ♠ . Goetz checked, Vogel bet $35,000, and Goetz made the call.
The turn brought the K ♥ , giving Goetz top pair, and the same sequence took place: check, bet of $100,000 from Vogel, and a call from Goetz.
The 5 ♣ was dealt on the river, and Goetz checked for a third time. Vogel gave it some thought and put Goetz all in for a little under $300,000.
After agonizing over his decision for a few minutes, Goetz finally made the call. Vogel was bluffing with Q ♣ 8 ♦ , and Goetz doubled up.
Considering that Vogel was the chip leader, a raise from the cutoff with Q-8 offsuit was a completely justifiable play in a short-handed poker game. In that situation, he should be applying pressure to the table since every knockout brings a sizable pay increase.
Goetz’s call from the small blind with K-J offsuit was an OK play. The first thing he has to consider in that situation is his chip stack. This is the biggest leak for amateur tournament players. With a little over 20 big blinds, you can’t afford to play a lot of flops, especially out of position. You will miss the flop most of the time, and you don’t have any room to maneuver.
On a 4 ♣ 6 ♣ 3 ♠ flop, Goetz held the better hand with king high but was faced with a bet, a bad board and an aggressive player with chips. Vogel could be expected to bet almost any type of flop, whether he had a hand or not. Calling a bet on a wet flop when you’re out of position with king high is a suspect play — almost as suspect as Lebron James’ ability to close in the fourth quarter. There were only a few good turn cards for Goetz to hit, and Vogel’s position let him keep his foot on the gas pedal.
The king showed up on the turn — the king of hearts, not “the King” as in Lebron, who wouldn’t have helped as much. Had Goetz not turned a jack or a king, he undoubtedly would have lost the hand. This also happened to be a great card for Vogel to continue his bluff. If Goetz had called the flop with a draw or a small pair, Vogel could have easily blown his opponent off marginal holdings.
Once the 5 ♣ landed on the river, Goetz was forced to check. His top pair held a lot of value, but there was a four-card straight on board, as well as a potential flush. I do give credit to Goetz for his river call. He realized that his hand was a lot stronger than expected. Given the situation of battling the aggressive chip leader and a scary board, he has to anticipate Vogel’s range to be wide enough to include a lot of bluffs.
Goetz made the right decision in the end but took the wrong route to get there.