Dems optimistic ahead of California recall vote as GOP divided over its frontrunner
LOS ANGELES — As the recall charges into its final days, Democrats’ midsummer panic has given way to cautious confidence that Gov. Gavin Newsom’s outlook has brightened, aided by healthy turnout so far, a towering advantage in money and the emergence of an ideal foil: Larry Elder.
A spate of polls showing a tightening race in July worked to Democrats’ advantage, as they marshaled their considerable institutional might in this deep-blue state to nudge their voters to the ballot box. But with seven days of voting to go, Newsom’s allies are working to ensure that promising signs for the governor do not lead to last-minute voter complacency.
“Even though the polling looks better, we’re still very clear that you can’t take anything for granted,” said Steve Smith, spokesman for the California Labor Federa
tion, among Newsom’s allies opposing the recall. “This last … push is where the campaign is won or lost. Absolutely we can’t take our foot off the pedal.”
Recall proponents, meanwhile, are projecting an air of underdog scrappiness, noting their effort, underestimated from the start, managed to give Newsom some serious heartburn. The fact that Newsom continues to seek help from national Democrats, they said, is a sign that the governor’s worries have not abated.
“Take the Bernie Sanders’ ad, and the Kamala Harris and supposed Biden appearances, you’ve got to wonder if they have some serious cracks in their very basic numbers because they are shoring that up at risk of alienating people in the center,” said Anne Hyde Dunsmore, campaign manager for Rescue California, one of the main recall groups.
Supporters of the recall face daunting political math: Democrats outnumber Republicans by 5 million registered voters, and independents tend to lean liberal in California. To pull off a win, recall backers must hope a significant number of Democrats defect from Newsom and vote in favor of the recall. But no polling demonstrated that; rather the surveys showed that a majority of Democrats do not support the recall but they were less motivated to vote than Republicans.
Mail ballot returns so far appear to indicate that the $36 million Newsom’s allies spent in August — on ads, social media and other get out the vote efforts — helped overcome any enthusiasm gap. That’s more than three times as much as the prorecall forces and the GOP candidates combined.
Democrats account for more than half of the 6.4 million ballots turned in as of Tuesday, while Republicans account for just under a quarter, according to Political Data Inc., a firm that uses state, county and commercial data to analyze the electorate.
Paul Mitchell, vice president of PDI, said the higher the turnout, the greater Newsom’s chances are given the state’s voter registration. He predicted that Democrats needed a 1.3-million ballot cushion going into Election Day; they currently have 1.84 million more ballots returned than Republicans. In-person voting, which favors the GOP, also began in parts of the state on Saturday but the numbers are too small so far to draw any conclusions.
“The idea of this being an election with a Republican surprise attack with a highly motivated base and Democrats not taking it seriously and not voting — that scenario is gone. That ship has sailed,” Mitchell said. “Now it’s more of a straight-up Democrat vs. Republican in a state with a 2-1 Democratic advantage and turnout at the level of a gubernatorial election, and Larry Elder is the face of the recall now versus Gavin Newsom. I don’t think it’s going to be a big question on election night.”
Newsom’s opponents qualified the recall for the Sept. 14 ballot because of a confluence of factors — Californians’ frustration over school and business closures, inconsistent COVID guidelines, a judge’s ruling to grant recall backers four extra months to gather signatures because of the pandemic and Newson’s decision to attend a posh maskless birthday dinner at the same time he was urging Californians to skip multifamily Thanksgiving dinners.
From the start, Newsom decided to avoid making the race a referendum on his tenure. As Elder became the Republican frontrunner, Democrats homed in on controversial statements Elder has made about women, minorities, climate change and his opposition to vaccine mandates, arguing that such a stance would cause more deaths and needlessly extend the pandemic.